Below is my Wednesday analysis from Belmont Park, complete with betting strategies. There is a $1,186,625 carryover from Belmont Stakes day, thanks in large part to Da’ Tara.
Belmont Park analysis (Wednesday, June 11, 2008)
by Jarrod Horak (racingonthenet.com, thoroughbredfever.com)
BEL 1 (Str-Alw, 3up, 8f) Number 5 Buy A Personality (9-2) has earned improved figs in all four exacta finishes. Levine is 28% 3rd race back and 34% with beaten favs. Number 4 Value Player (3-1) is back quickly for Dutrow, and Prado is 23% with this outfit. Consistent check earner will be finishing. The Plays: Number 5 to win, Exacta box 4-5
BEL 2 (Mcl-35k, NY-bred 3up, 6f) Number 6 Wolfson (4-1) is a $270k purchase out of the state bred straight maiden ranks for Kent D/Mott. An early/pressing trip is anticipated. Number 7 Blue Monster (12-1) is a 2nd timer now under the care of 33% layoff wiz Allen Iwinski. Johnny V is 2-5 with this barn recently. Number 2 Another Hades (5-2) was 2nd in his lone start at this level, and I like the rider upgrade to Coa. 0-12 colt sports the best figs but could get overbet on the win end. The Plays: Number 6 to win, Quinella 6-7, Exacta 6-7/2
BEL 3 (OC-75/3x, f&m 4up, 8f) Number 3 Winning Point (7-5) was on my radar screen last year, and the talented daughter of Point Given was part of the exacta in all seven of her starts. McLaughlin has her now, and he’s 24% with this type of returnee. On to bigger and better things after this optional claiming tally. Number 2 Scooter Girl (6-1) is out of a profitable 32% layoff barn and can complete the exacta. The Plays: Exacta 3-2
BEL 4 (OC-25/2x, NY-bred f&m 3up, 8f) Pick Six begins here. Number 8 La Mure (12-1) is back in New York after a failed turf run for veteran Maryland conditioner King Leatherbury. She was an above par place finisher versus similar course/distance foes two back, and she always fires every other race. Number 2 My Dinah (3-1) has won both of her turf to dirt starts. She reunites with winning pilot Espinoza, who is 3-6 with this barn, and another surface switching smasher is anticipated. Number 1 Love Co (5-2) dons the hood, lands Prado, and hails from a 19% turf to dirt barn. Come and get the rail-sitting fav. The Plays: Number 8 to win, Exacta 8/1-2, Exacta 1-2/8
BEL 5 (Clm-35k/2L, 3up, 9f inner turf) Number 7 Youbetthecan (6-1) was my choice at the Gulf two back, but he failed to fire in either of his starts versus similar. He did show some turf ability in his Big A maiden claiming tally, and Dutrow is 25% with this type of layoff runner. Cornelio V strings along. Number 6 Hot Table (3-1) is obvious for Kent D/Mott after a decent place finish versus similar, but the fig was nothing special. Much more consistent this year with 3 of 4 good efforts. Number 5 Kick Up Your Heels (6-1) was a wide 6th in the Hot Table claimer on May 24th. 3rd race back and winning pilot Prado strings along. Number 14 Flash of Victory (4-1) is a solid turf performer, and he’s a legit win player from a tough post if able to draw in from the AE list. The Plays: Number 7 to win, Exacta 7/5-6-14, Exacta 5-6-14/7, $1 Grand Slam 5-6-7-14/2-4-8/4/5
BEL 6 (Str-Alw, 3up, 8.5T) Number 2 Stormy Mirage (10-1) is a turf profile fit, and 33% layoff trainer Iwinski has him going the right way. 17% turf rider Johnny V gets a leg up. Number 4 Romp (6-1) fell as the fav in a Monmouth entry level affair last time. Brown is 36% with shippers, and I’ll give the sustained runner a look in here. Number 8 Dancing Tin Man (3-1) has won 3-4 turf routes and got up at this course/distance last out. The Plays: Number 2 to win, Exacta 2/4-8, Exacta 4-8/2
BEL 7 My racingonthenet free selection of the day.
BEL 8 My MySpace free selection of the day.
BEL 9 (Clm-25/2L, 3up, 6f) Number 9 Golden Amulet (7-2) receives a rider upgrade to Castellano, and Del Carroll is 21% 1st tag. He figures right there with a repeat of his April 19th place finish. An outside stalk and pounce trip is projected. Number 10 Ten Forty (3-1) is the one to reel in under Kent D. Levine is 33% 1st lasix and 28% with this type of layoff runner. The Plays: Number 10 to win, Exacta box 9-10
Photo Credit: Newscom