2008 Bowl Preview, Part 2

You can read Part 1, which reviews how bowl selection works, here. Since that’s clear understandable somewhat explained, let’s now look at the BCS top 10 teams and what the rest of their seasons look like.

1. Alabama, SEC (West), 11-0

• Final game: Auburn (5-6)
• SEC conference championship game: vs. #4 Florida on 12/6

They should easily win against Auburn this coming weekend, and then the SEC championship game will likely determine whether or not they’ll go to the National Championship Game. If they win, they’ll be playing for the title. If they lose, they may still play in the Orange bowl or another BCS bowl.

2. Texas Tech, Big 12, 10-0

• Next week: #5 Oklahoma (9-1)
• Final game: Baylor (4-7)

Next week is the real challenge. If Oklahoma wins, they’ll be tied at 10-1 each and Texas, who will likely win, will be at 11-1. Texas Tech will likely tie things with an easy win against Baylor. Oklahoma would be tied up as well at 11-1 if they win against #12 OK State in their final win. If that’s the case, I’m honestly not sure how the chips would fall, because they would all have lost to one another, and I’m not sure how it is decided (if someone knows, let me know – my guess is strength of schedule, but I’m not sure who would come out on top in that case). If Texas Tech wins their final two games, though, they’ll be heading to the National Championship Game. If they lose to Baylor, they may still get to another BCS bowl.

3. Texas, Big 12, 10-1

• Final game: Texas A&M (4-7)

If Texas loses, they probably won’t play and BCS bowl games. If they win, though (and they should), it depends on the Texas Tech/Oklahoma game. If Texas Tech wins, Texas will likely play in the sugar bowl, but if Oklahoma wins, we might be in a three-way tie (see above).

4. Florida, SEC (East), 9-1

• Next week: Citadel (4-7)
• Final game: Florida State (7-3)
• SEC conference championship game: vs. #1 Alabama on 12/6

Citadel should be an easy game – they’re a bad team in a Div-II conference! Florida State won’t lie down and take a loss, but I do think Florida State will beat them as well. That places all of the importance on the SEC championship game. If they win, they’ll probably be heading to the National Championship Game. If they lose, they might still get a BCS bowl, but it depends on how the other teams in the top 10 play. It isn’t a sure thing.

5. Oklahoma, Big 12, 9-1

• Next week: #2 Texas Tech (10-0)
• Final game: #12 Oklahoma State (9-2)

See above – #2 and #3. Oklahoma might have a chance for a bowl game if the chips fall correctly, but they by far have the toughest end-of-season schedule. They have to win both games.

6. USC, Pac-10, 9-1

• Next week: Notre Dame (6-4)
• Final game: UCLA (4-6)

Unless USC falls apart completely and loses their last two game AND Oregon State wins their final two games, UCS will be playing in the Rose Bowl. They still want to think they have title game hopes, but if that happens, there will be a public outcry. Even if their win-loss schedule is the same as some of the other top teams, they definitely had an easier schedule. Sorry, but the Pac-10 sucks this year.

7. Utah, MWC, 11-0

• Final game: #14 BYU (10-1)

According to the BCS rules, if a non-BCS conference team is #12 or higher, they get to play in a game. So, if Utah wins, they’ll head to the Sugar, Fiesta, or Orange Bowl. If they lose, they’ll still be ranked pretty high, though BYU will bump ahead of them, and so will Boise State in all likelihood.

8. Penn State, Big Ten, 10-1

• Final game: Michigan State

This is an easy one. If they win, they go to the Rose Bowl. If they lose, they tie for the Big Ten title with Michigan State and OSU, but MSU OSU (well…someone) will get to play the Rose Bowl. If that is the case, the likelihood that Penn State will play in another bowl is small.

9. Boise State, WAC, 10-0

• Next week: Nevada (6-4)
• Final game: Fresno State (6-4)

If Boise State loses one of their final games, they probably will be out of the running for a bowl. However, they likely will win, which puts them in the running for a bowl game. It depends on Utah. If Utah loses, Boise State will play one of the bowls. If Utah wins I personally think that Boise State should also play a bowl, meaning that TWO non-BCS-conference teams would play this year!

10. Ohio State, Big Ten, 9-2

• Final game: Michigan

If Ohio State loses, I will laugh. So hard. They should win though…a crushing win. However, even if that is the case, they might no make the Rose Bowl, which could go to either Penn State or Michigan State. I guess there could be an argument that they should play in another bowl game.

Also:

Even though they aren’t in the top ten, we also have to talk about the ACC, since the top-ranked team in that conference automatically gets to play in the Bowl. Right now, that’s North Carolina at #16, but if Florida State (#19) pulls off wins against both #25 Maryland and #4 Florida, or even just Maryland, they will probably pull ahead. Of course, Maryland is probably in the running as well. The ACC sucks.

So, based on all of the above, this is my prediction right now:

National Championship Game: Alabama vs. Texas Tech

Rose Bowl: Penn State vs. USC

Sugar Bowl: Texas vs. __________

Fiesta Bowl: Florida State vs. ____________

Orange Bowl: Florida vs. ____________

Those three blank spaces, I predict, will go to Utah, Boise State, and..well…hm…it should be Oklahoma, but conferences can’t send more than two games. So, Ohio State? Ew. Georiga can’t, Oklahoma State can’t, Missouri can’t…Really, I think BYU (if they were two-loss at that point) might be a much better choice than Ohio State! Could we really see three non-BCS-conference teams play bowls this year??? I vote yes!

Please leave a comment and tell me how I’m wrong with my above analysis. This is the first time I sat down and figured it out in my head, so be gentle!

Part three is coming soon!