the Chase Update – Week 2

#1 – Kyle Busch (+3):  #1 in the Sprint Cup Series; #1 in the Craftsman Truck Series; #2 in the Nationwide Series. There absolutely is not a hotter driver in the entire racing world right at the moment, and in the six races he’s run so far this season between the three series, it’s translated into a win, four 2nd place finishes, and a 4th place finish. The scary part? Kyle has a better history of running at Vegas than he did at Daytona or California. Factor that in with the momentum and you’ve now got yourself quite the formula for success. That’s why he’s my top pick to win the race this week, and doing so would not only get him his first victory with Joe Gibbs Racing and keep him atop the points standings, but it would also secure the first ever Sprint Cup win for Toyota.

#2 – Ryan Newman (-1):  After shocking the racing world with his highly publicized last-lap victory in the Daytona 500, Newman followed up with a mediocre 10th-place run in Fontana. This week he will attempt to improve on his California showing, but will have to tackle a course that’s been bitter-sweet to him so far. In seven tries so far at Vegas, Newman does have four top-ten’s, but he also has three finishes of 27th or worse. His time spent in Sin City can be described as inconsistent at best, so where he sits on this list next week will depend on which Newman shows up at the track on Sunday.

#3 – Tony Stewart (NC):  The only driver in NASCAR that’s been on more of a roll so far this year than Smoke is his Gibbs teammate of Kyle Busch. He started the year off with a bang by winning the Nationwide race in Daytona and then finishing third in the Daytona 500. He then backed that up this last weekend with a 7th place showing in the Sprint Cup race at California and won the Nationwide race again, this time by leading 136 laps – the second most in NNS history at the track. Las Vegas is one of five tracks that Stewart has never won a Cup race at, but he has done very well there. In nine races there he has (4) top-five’s and (6) top-ten’s, including his seventh place run in 2007.

#4 – Kurt Busch (-2):  A week ago the older Busch Brother was still the talk of the town after pushing his Penske teammate to victory lane at Daytona to grab a second place finish for himself, and things looked to be on the up and up for him considering his track history at California. Unfortunately for Kurt, he came home with a disappointing 13th place finish, and – much like Newman – while he’s had successful runs in Vegas in the past, he’s also been extremely inconsistent there. After back-to-back top ten’s in 2004 and 2005, he has failed to finish inside the top fifteen in the two years since then. He will need to drastically improve on his 26th place run from last year if he wishes to stay where he’s at in the points, and Crew Chief Pat Tryson just might be the guy to help him do it. In nine races here with Mark Martin driving for him, the tandem had 7 top-ten finishes including a win in 1998.

#5 – Carl Edwards (+13):  After looking good early on at Daytona, Edwards fell off towards the end of the race and found himself with a 19th place finish and outside of the Chase field after the first week. Cousin Carl obviously rebounded very nicely by bringing home the checkers in the caution-filled Auto Club 500 that concluded this past Monday, and now looks to be in good shape. He’s been okay at Vegas in the three times he’s raced there, posting finishes of 14th, 26th, and then finally cracking the top-ten last year with a 6th place finish. How Edwards runs this Sunday should be a pretty good indicator of where Roush Fenway Racing sits in terms of development with the new car.

#6 – Kasey Kahne (NC):  Despite being the new driver this year for Budweiser, Kahne has somehow managed to keep himself well under the radar so far this season, and it appears to be working well for him. The first two weeks have resulted in 7th and 9th place finishes, and he’s led laps in both races. This weekend should be an interesting one for Kahne, though, as his history at Vegas is truly mystifying. In four races there, he has two top-five’s and two finishes of 35th or worse. With some of the guys that are still below him in the standings, he needs to keep away from trouble on the track to stay comfortable in the standings when the series heads to Atlanta.

#7 – Kevin Harvick (+6):  In both races run so far this year Harvick failed to look too impressive early on, yet has managed to walk away with decent finishes of 14th and 8th, which has proven to be enough thus far. He’s another of the Chase drivers that hasn’t done too great at Vegas, though, with only one top-five and two top-ten’s in nine races there. Last year he only finished in 27^th. If that happens again this weekend, he will likely find himself in a hole to climb out of.

#8 – Jimmie Johnson (+17):  If there’s any track that Johnson would like to visit while sitting 8th in points, it’s very likely that he’d bet on Vegas. He’s won this event in each of the last three seasons and he boasts the best average finish at Vegas amongst all drivers. Even if he doesn’t win it, expect the defending series champion to make another huge jump up the standings after this week is over.

#9 – Greg Biffle (NC):  Despite the fact that his best finish so far this year is only 10th, the Biff has looked very impressive at certain points in both races. I’m expecting a much better season from him this year, and this should be a good place for Greg to pick up some more ground in the points. Prior to last year’s 16th place finish, he had back-to-back top-ten’s at Vegas.

#10 – Jeff Burton (+1):   Jeff has started this season in typical Jeff Burton fashion – making solid runs while keeping a low profile. He has yet to record a top-ten in 2008, but he also hasn’t finished worse than 13th so far, and he’s led laps in both races. He’s done well in Vegas in the past, recording 6 top-ten’s in 10 races there, including wins in 1999 and 2000, but he has only one top-ten there in his last four tries.

#11 - Brian Vickers (+1):  The fact that Brian Vickers even thought about being on this list shows the remarkable turnaround for not only Toyota, but also for Team Red Bull from this time last year. He has 12th and 11th place finishes so far this year, but Vegas hasn’t been quite as kind to him in the past. He’s been here three times and has never finished better than 22nd. That was his last run here, back in 2006, as he failed to qualify for last year’s event.

#12 – Martin Truex Jr. (+7):  I know – wrong Junior, right? After a subpar Daytona in which he finished 20th, Truex bounced back with a sixth place run last week and will be looking to improve yet again on Sunday. He’s raced at Vegas only twice so far. He finished 20th in 2006, but was able to improve to 12th last season.