Why Mark Martin Could be the Key to the Silly Season Domino Theory

Image details: Pocono 500 Qualifying served by picapp.com

With Aric Almirola now slated to drive the no. 8 car full-time for DEI next season, it appears as though the driver / mentor program that the organization set out to accomplish with veteran driver, Mark Martin, is now coming to a close. With Silly Season already in full effect, rumors are now circulating that Mark could announce his plans for the 2009 Sprint Cup season this weekend at Daytona, as reported by SPEED’s Wendy Venturini.

With the Silly Season talks turning into a chess match – or, even a poker game if you will – do not underestimate the importance of what the perennial Hall of Famer could have to say this weekend. Despite the fact that most people feel that Tony Stewart and Hendrick Motorsports are holding all the face cards in the deck, Mark Martin could very well have a lot to say in who winds up where by the start of the 2009 season.

After all of the early speculation that Stewart could be looking for an early release from his current contract with Joe Gibbs Racing to move to Haas CNC Racing in a deal that would involve Tony gaining partial ownership of the team, many sources have since refuted those rumors, stating that Stewart is now pushing back plans for ownership of a Cup team until after he officially retires. If these latest reports hold true, then that makes Hendrick Motorsports’ no. 5 car – recently made available with the release of Casey Mears – more than likely the only seat with enough drawing power to lure Stewart away from Gibbs prior the conclusion of 2009. Likewise, this could very well take Haas CNC right out of the Silly Season game as a major player, as without Stewart on their immediate lineup, the likelihood of landing a name like Ryan Newman or Martin Truex Jr. in this upcoming offseason is slim to none.

That said, Mark Martin should be looking at one of three possible options for next season: A) Running a part-time schedule on another driver / mentor program; B) Running a full season in an effort to finally win his elusive first Cup championship; or C) Retire altogether. Whichever of those options Martin chooses to pursue, his decision could be directly linked to what the other big names for this off-season decide to do as well. Here’s how each of the three scenarios could play out:

A) Part-Time Schedule:
Should Mark decide that he’s found his beckoning as a mentor to rookie drivers at this stage in his career, then there’s two viable options that immediately stick out – splitting time in the no. 5 car with Brad Keselowski to help bring him through the ranks at Hendrick, or hooking up with Red Bull Racing in an effort to get Scott Speed ready for a career in the Sprint Cup Series. If he does in fact hook up with Hendrick, then what that does is keep Tony Stewart at Gibbs for another year, and also probably keeps Newman with Penske on a short-term deal. Additionally, this would likely give Roush-Fenway Racing a reason to hold onto Jamie McMurray through the ‘09 season because they have a different agenda than the other major players involved. In 2010 they’ll lose one of their five team cars, and they’ve already locked up Carl Edwards, Matt Kenseth, and Greg Biffle to long-term deals and are working on one with David Ragan. Essentially, even if they were to release McMurray, they still don’t have a long-term ride to offer.

If Martin were to take the path towards Red Bull Racing, however, this would then open the doors for a potential move of Tony Stewart or Ryan Newman to Hendrick, which in turn, would then open a seat at either Penske or Gibbs – possibly both if Stewart went to Hendrick, and Newman took the no. 20 seat at JGR. In this scenario, Casey Mears could then wind up driving the no. 12 car for Roger Penske.

B) Full-Time Schedule:
There’s been talk of Mark possibly coming back next season to run full-time, and again, the early speculation was that he would run for Hendrick. This scenario would pretty much play out in the same manner as if he went there on a driver / mentor program, with the exception being that with the team not investing any time or money into the development of Brad Keselowski, Tony Stewart could still wind up with the team in 2010 after Mark retires for good.

But, if Mark’s goal is to run a full-season next year, then I don’t think Hendrick is where he’ll wind up. The possibility that nobody’s talking about, and is actually possibly my favorite, is that Jack Roush releases McMurray at the conclusion of the season, and with the no. 26 car’s final season being 2009 anyway, Mark returns to Roush for one final hoorah. This would give Roush-Fenway an additional bonafide championship contender for ‘09 without forsaking any of their long-term commitments, and would also give Mark the opportunity to retire ‘at home’. This scenario also solves very little in the rest of the Silly Season mele’, as that leaves the slot at Hendrick unresolved, which in turn leaves the decisions for the rest of the teams and drivers unresolved … and, adds McMurray’s name to the list of drivers looking for a ride.

C) Retirement:
Most feel that this is the least likely of the three options for Mark, but it remains an option nonetheless. This scenario wouldn’t play out much differently than if Mark were to run full-time outside of Hendrick, with the exception that McMurray would stay with Roush for one more season, making it one less name in the driver pool to add to the headache.

Regardless which of the three paths Mark Martin should choose to head down, it most directly effects what happens to both Tony Stewart and Ryan Newman. That will then sort out which of the top-tier teams in the sport have rides available for next season, which will then lead to determining who Casey Mears and possibly Martin Truex and Jamie McMurray will drive for … thus, where the “domino theory” stems from.

Even with Mark addressing the media this weekend at Daytona, I wouldn’t expect an outright answer as to where he will be next season, but it should shed some light on which of the three paths he aims to follow. As is always the case, it’s pure speculation at this point, but my gut tells me that we should be looking for a reunion with Jack Roush and I fully expect this to happen, which means we’re likely to spend yet another couple of months playing the guessing game with Hendrick, Stewart, and Newman.