Chase Update – May

#1 – Jeff Burton (1):
Burton’s rolling into May looking like he’s in search of replacing Jeff Gordon as NASCAR’s new “Mr. Consistency.” In nine races this season, the current points leader has 6 top-ten finishes, and has yet to finish a race worse than 13th. Looking into the May schedule, things could get interesting for Burton. We start off at Richmond where he won back in 1998, but he has only one top-ten since 2004. The series then moves onto Darlington where he last won back in ’99 and currently hold back-to-back top-ten’s, though those are his only two since 2001. Lowe’s Motor Speedway had gotten shaky for Burton there for awhile as well, but seems to be righting that ship with two top-ten’s in the last three races there. With as well as some of the guys behind him are running, don’t look for Jeff to hold the points lead for long, but he should still be in a comfortable points position somewhere around 5th come June.

#2 – Kyle Busch (2):
“Wild Thing” has been simply sensational so far this year, and has now closed the gap between he and first place back to within a mere 22 points. With two Cup wins in his pocket and conquering arguably his worst track on the schedule last week at Talladega, Busch now heads to arguably his best track in Richmond. Busch has 5 top-five finishes in only six career starts at Richmond, and holds a great chance to come out of there the new points leader. Things probably won’t slow down much at Darlington, either, where he also holds 2 top-ten’s in three starts, but Lowe’s is definitely the Achilles heel for Busch. His best career finish in Charlotte was a 30th place run last Fall. He will need to find a way to carry his momentum through the Coca Cola 600 if he wants to start June out on top. Worst case scenario, though, is he should be sitting top-3 in the standings.

#3 – Dale Earnhardt Jr. (3):
So what if he hasn’t won yet? Junior Nation has had plenty to cheer about so far this year with 7 top-ten finishes through the first 9 races, and now we head to Richmond where he’s a three-time victor. His finishes over the last three races there have been less than desirable, but his new home at HMS seems to be paying dividends, and the information he’s getting from his new teammates seems to be working. Junior should walk away from Richmond with a solid finish, and he has plenty to look forward to at Darlington where he has 4 top-ten’s in the last 7 races. Lowe’s is a track that seems to have gotten away from Dale at some point, but things were on the up and up there last year with a pair of 8th place finishes. This may be another winless month for Earnhardt, but don’t expect him to come out any worse than fourth in points.

#4 – Denny Hamlin (6):
Denny has been gaining ground through the standings at rapid speeds. After a disappointing start to the season, he’s now turned that around with five straight finishes of 6th or better, and the May schedule is right up his ally. Between the three points races in May, Denny has a combined ten starts that have resulted in an amazing 8 top-ten’s. Look for him to pick up his first win at any one of these tracks, and barring any misfortunes, look for him to make up the 99 point deficit between he and first place and come out of May as your new points leader.

#5 – Jimmie Johnson (4):
He had only 1 top-ten finish through the first five races of the season, so what did this team do? They went out and tested at various tracks nearly every day during their first off-week, and it’s really shown in the results column. Since then, he rattled off three straight top-five’s and looked to be headed for another at Talladega, only to get shuffled back in the final laps for a 13th place finish. The May schedule favors Johnson very much. He swept both Richmond races last year, has 4 top-five’s in the last 5 Darlington races, and is a 5-time winner at Lowe’s with 11 consecutive top-ten finishes there. Expect Jimmie Jo’ to round out the top-three with Hamlin and Busch by the end of the month.

#6 – Kevin Harvick (5):
After rattling off 7 straight top-15 finishes to begin the season, Harvick has fallen a bit the last two weeks due to a lack of fuel at Pheonix and a last lap accident in Talladega. He should be okay at Richmond – where he won in 2006 – but, look for some of this downward spiral to continue through Darlington and Lowe’s, where he’s been average at best. He’s likely to lose some ground in the standings and will probably close the month out somewhere around 10th in points, but things should start picking back up sometime in June.

#7 – Clint Bowyer (8):
Bowyer showed early signs that last season may have been a fluke, but the 6 consecutive top-ten finishes he’s now holding would indicate otherwise.  The three tracks on tap for May have been good enough to him so far in his young career that he should have plenty to look forward to with 6 finishes in the top-15 in his nine races at these tracks.

#8 – Greg Biffle (10):
The Biff started the year off great, but now has only one top-ten in the past four races. He’s enjoyed moderate success at Richmond and Lowe’s in the past, but has been solid at Darlington, where he’s a two-time winner. Greg stands a chance to drop out of the top-12 this month, but I think he’ll hold on somewhere around 11th or 12th.

#9 – Tony Stewart (7):
Despite playing a factor in nearly every race this year, Smoke has had some bad luck the last couple of weeks, but he’s usually a slow starter anyway. He’s been solid at Richmond and Lowe’s, but Darlington has been average for him the last few seasons and is one of only 4 tracks he has yet to win at. I’d expect to see Stewart hold ground through the month somewhere right about where he is now.

#10 – Carl Edwards (11):
He’s been the only driver in the garage able to offer up the same level excitement as Kyle Busch this year, and would actually be 3 spots higher if not for his penalty at Vegas … and, even higher if not for a few issues with his car. Richmond hasn’t been great to him, Darlington’s been good, and Lowe’s has been great, with 4 top-five’s in 5 races. With two 1.5 mile tracks on the schedule, Edwards should be able to pick up at least a few more spots in the standings.

#11 – Ryan Newman (12):
He hadn’t been running particularly well since winning Daytona, but now has 2 top-ten’s in the last 3 races – and, it should be 3 in a row had it not been for an engine failure at Phoenix. Newman’s had a lot of success, and a lot failures at all three tracks on the schedule. He’s a true wildcard at this point in the Chase.

#12 – Juan Pablo Montoya (17):
A 2nd place run at Talladega has put JPM inside the top-12 for the first time in his NASCAR career, despite this being his first top-ten of the season. He failed to finish in the top-20 in any of the races at these tracks during his rookie season, and should easily be disposed from the Chase field as early as Richmond.

Who Will Drop This Month:
- Juan Pablo Montoya

Who Will Make the Field:
- Jeff Gordon