Chasing a Four Man Race

Following the UAW-Ford 500 in 2006, Denny Hamlin was fifth in the standings and sat only 51 points behind Chase leader Jeff Burton.  In fact, Kurt Busch and Kasey Kahne were then tied for ninth and tenth and were only 185 points behind.

After Kansas in 2005 (which was then the fourth race in the Chase), Jimmie Johnson was in fifth, trailing leader Tony Stewart by 92 points, while tenth place Kurt Busch sat 224 back.

And, in 2004 after the first four Chase races in 2004, fifth place Mark Martin was 150 points back and tenth place Jeremy Mayfield was 257 points out.

So, what’s the point in the history lesson, right?  How about the fact that after the first two races in this year’s Chase, people couldn’t stop raving about how close it was.  After the third race, the margins had begun to spread, but nearly every fan in the stands felt like it was still anyone’s ballgame.  Yet, what did Talladega produce for the 2007 Championship playoffs of racing?  Tenth through twelfth in the standings (Martin Truex, Matt Kenseth, & Jeff Burton) are all 300 points or more behind Chase leader Jeff Gordon and are virtually eliminated from this thing altogether at this point.  Eighth and ninth place Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin are 260 and 262 points behind respectively.  Is it possible for them to comeback this year?  Technically speaking – yes.  But, when you consider how they’ve faired in the past at some of the upcoming tracks and take their inexperience into account, the realistic answer is “no”.  Moving down the ladder, you’ll find Kevin Harvick, Carl Edwards, and Kurt Busch running fifth to seventh … 202, 205, and 215 points back of the leader.  All are very talented drivers, but to even think that one of these guys are going to make up that many points on the likes of Jeff Gordon AND Jimmie Johnson in just six races to me is asinine.

I know you’ve been counting on your ten little fingers, and when you realized that this year’s Chase actually features twelve drivers, you probably even pulled off a sock … that’s okay, because at least I know you’ve been following along and now you know that leaves us with just four drivers remaining.  Break that down and you’ll see that those drivers are teammates Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson – who sit #1 and 2 in the rankings with just a nine point margin separating them.  Yes, I hate it just as much as you do, but they’re both obviously still VERY much in this thing.  Clint Bowyer sits in third just 63 points out, but can this guy really remain consistent enough in the final six races to compete with the big boys?  Probably not, but for now I have to leave him included.  Then, in fourth place you have Tony Stewart – 154 points back and with a lot of ground to make up.  He’s run very well historically at most of the tracks remaining on the schedule.  That’s good news for him.  The bad news?  So have the guys he’s chasing. 

It’s going to be tough for the 20 or the 07 to hang with the Hendrick boys for the remainder of the Chase, but it’s very, very possible.  As for the other 8 drivers?  Here’s a few more facts for you to consider:  In 2004, Kurt Busch won the championship.  At this point in the Chase he was already in first place with a 29 point lead.  In 2005, it was Tony Stewart – who also led at this point with a 75 point lead.  Last year was the only exception, as after the first four races, eventual champion Jimmie Johnson was in 8th place and sat 156 points behind the leader.  An amazing comeback no doubt.  However, if you’re one of those fans thinking that another Cinderella comeback could be in the works for  your favorite driver this year … well, hopefully you’re not using Johnson’s 156 point deficit as the standard for what you would consider “striking distance”.  Because if you are, you’ll quickly realize that fourth place Tony Stewart is the last driver in the standings that sits within your standards of “striking distance”.  It’s sad, I agree, but ‘tis the world we live in.