Don’t Expect Banks to Increase Dividends

Back in the day, when big banks had balance sheets that made them appear flush with cash and full of value, banks offered some of the best dividends. However, between the financial meltdown and TARP, financial institutions found it necessary to cut dividends. For many investors, though, the fact that some banks have made arrangements to repay TARP and move forward, hope has been rekindled for an increase in dividends. But it is probably not likely. Financial institutions probably won’t be able to offer the same kind of dividends for quite some time. Some of the factors that may make banks reluctant to raise their dividends include:

• Losses are still expected to mount for some financial institutions. Credit card charge-offs are increasing, and commercial real estate continues to fall in value. And foreclosures could still continue to cause problems.
• More regulation may be coming. Even with TARP and its requirements behind big banks, the President has proposed regulatory overhaul, and banks are wary of what it will entail, and concerned about how it might limit profitability.

However, it is possible — even likely — that, in the future, financial institutions will raise their dividends to some degree. But I doubt they will return to previous levels anytime that could be considered soon. It will take years before banks feel good enough about economic recovery to boost their dividends.

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