Early Voting: Preliminary Data

Cnn.com has a great map showing some early voting data — unfortunately, it’s flash only, so I can only link to it: it’s here. Before you go rushing off, however, I’ve got a few things to say about early voting.

You can vote early in 31 states, and it looks like plenty of people are taking advantage of that fact. Of those 31, only 22 actually make any sort of early voting data available. I’m making all my judgments on early voting on data from less than half the states in the U.S. — so no promises on whether what I believe is happening is actually going on. So far, California is reporting that almost 2.2 million ballots have already been cast, through both mail-in and in-person voting. That’s over 12 percent of the state’s population.

I think there’s no question that there will be record turnout in every state. But I think that a higher percentage of voters are also taking advantage of early voting: while I expect higher than normal numbers at the polls, I don’t think they’ll be quite as high as most people are predicting. Colorado’s numbers really drive that fact home. Over 800,000 voters have already handed in their ballots in Colorado. That’s over 30 percent of registered voters in the state.

In 2004, only 64 percent of Americans eligible to vote did so. It’s a stretch but it’s possible that 64 percent of Americans could cast their votes before Election Day this year.

And, yes, in most states you still get the ‘I Voted’ sticker even if you vote early.