Race Preview for the Coke Zero 400 at Daytona

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This week, NASCAR returns to Daytona International Speedway for the Coke Zero 400, one of the biggest races of the year on the Sprint Cup schedule. With Daytona being one of NASCAR’s two restrictor plate courses, the track has fallen under quite a bit of scrutiny over the years. While it’s still loved by many, there are still those that feel as though things tend to get a bit overhyped whenever the series heads down to Florida. But, whether you love it or you hate it, one thing cannot be denied, and that is that the 50th running of the Daytona 500 held here this past February was one that brought plenty of excitement. In fact, some believe that race was actually one of the Car of Tomorrow’s shining moments to date.

Recent Winners:
2008 – Ryan Newman
2007 – Jamie McMurray, Kevin Harvick
2006 – Tony Stewart, Jimmie Johnson
2005 – Tony Stewart, Jeff Gordon

Recent Pole Winners:
2008 – Jimmie Johnson
2007 – “Cancelled Qualifying”, David Gilliland
2006 – Boris Said, Jeff Burton
2005 – Tony Stewart, Dale Jarrett

the Usual Suspects:
Despite the fact that he hasn’t won a Cup race all season long and that he’s been under the microscope this season in regards to his contract situation, Tony Stewart remains one of the favorites to win this Saturday. Along with boasting the highest driver rating over the last 7 races at the track, Tony has also won this race twice before (’05 & ‘06), and also holds the track record for most laps led in a 400-mile race when he led 151 circuits back in 2005. Additionally, Smoke leads all active drivers in the series with wins between June through August since 2003 with 12 of them to his credit. He also led the most laps at this year’s 500, only to lose the lead on the final lap of the race.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. is certainly considered the fan favorite to win the race this weekend, and rightfully so. Dale owns two Cup victories at Daytona himself, and has recorded 10 top-ten finishes over 17 starts. He ran very well during the Daytona 500 in February and at times appeared as though he might grab a victory in his very first start with Hendrick Motorsports, but eventually faded away near the end. Now that he’s finally broken his winless streak by taking the checkered flag at Michigan, perhaps the no. 88 team’s been able to relieve themselves of enough pressure to regain Jr’s status as the master of restrictor plate racing.

Both Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson have seen their share of dominant days at Daytona. Gordon leads all active drivers with 6 wins here, and Johnson had a stretch of five consecutive Daytona races with a finish of 6th or better, which also included a win at the 2006 Daytona 500. Since that win, however, Johnson has recorded only one top-ten finish in the four races since, and he finished 27th here in February. Gordon’s last Daytona victory came at the 500 the year before.

Amongst the other favorites to win this weekend is Kevin Harvick, winner of the 2007 Daytona 500. Harvick has struggled at the track since then, finishing 34th last July and 14th earlier this year. He’s also had his struggles over the last few weeks of the season, but also known as one of the best night racers in the series, a return to Daytona could be just what the doctor ordered … Kyle Busch’s over all numbers at Daytona seem to be about middle of the road, but you can pretty much chalk that up to a few bad runs earlier on in his career. He’s finished inside the top-five in 3 of the last 4 trips to Daytona, to include a pair of runner-up finishes, and he finally picked up his first restrictor plate win earlier this year at Talladega … Kurt Busch may have gotten the monkey off his back with his win last weekend at New Hampshire, and it could’ve come at just the right time. With the number 2 time finding themselves in a much deeper hole than they could’ve ever expected to have to climb out of this late in the season, there might not be a track they’d rather visit more than Daytona. He has still yet to add a Daytona victory to his championship resume’, but he’s always considered a favorite here with 7 top-five finishes over 15 races. He has finished as the runner-up here on three occassions.

the Unusual Suspects:
When you start to think about sleeper picks at Daytona, probably the first name that jumps out to you is the guy that beat Kyle Busch to the line in this race last year, Jamie McMurray. The 2007 victory was only Jamie’s second top-five finish at the track in his career, but don’t let the numbers fool you. McMurray’s been a solid performer here ever since he started running full-time in the Cup Series, but as has been the case so many times throughout his career, he has been the unfortunate victim of bad luck more often than not.

Elliott Sadler has run well here at times, especially as of late. He has finished 6th in three of the last four Daytona races, and also scored a pair of top-five’s here back in 2001 … Brian Vickers has had a great run for his Red Bull Racing team over the past couple of months, and Vickers is especially known for his restrictor plate prowess. Though he typically runs stronger at Talladega, he does have a pair of top-ten’s at Daytona, and finished 12th here in February … Robby Gordon typically isn’t associated with many tracks other than road course races, but you may be surprised to learn that he is currently working on a string of five consecutive top-15 finishes at Daytona.

the Unusual Slackers:
It’s not very often that folks will make it a point to drop Denny Hamlin from there fantasy rosters for an upcoming race, but a trip to Daytona could call for such action. Not only has Denny failed to record a single top-15 finish in his five trips to Daytona, but his average finish of 27.0 actually matches that of JJ Yeley … Carl Edwards has been one of the top performers of the season, and is heavily considered to be amongst the true championship contenders this year. That does not mean, however, that he’s necessarily solid at every track on the schedule. Carl has only one top-ten finish in 7 Daytona races, which was a 4th place run here last July. He was unable to use that for any kind of momentum, however, as he then finished 19th here in February … Carl’s teammate, Matt Kenseth, hasn’t had much better luck taming Daytona, either. With only one top-five to his credit and an average finish here of 22.9 over 17 races, Daytona ranks amongst Matt’s worst tracks … Martin Truex Jr. is in dire need of a good run if he wants to return to the Chase for the Cup field this year, but if you ask him, Daytona’s not the best place to be given the current situation. Martin’s 13th place run here last July ranks as his best finish over six races at Daytona.

Best Driver Ratings (from racingone.com):
1. Tony Stewart – 108.1
2. Ryan Newman – 98.6
3. Jimmie Johnson – 95.5
4. Kyle Busch - 95.3
5. Kurt Busch – 93.0

Best Average Finishes (from racingone.com):
1. Clint Bowyer – 13.0
2. Jimmie Johnson – 13.2
3. Dale Earnhardt Jr. – 13.8
4. Sam Hornish Jr. – 15.0
5. David Gilliland – 15.7 

Daytona Facts:
- A Cup race at Daytona has gone without any lead changes on two different occassions, the last of which came back in 1963.
- The race has gone caution-free 12 times, most recently the Daytona 500 in 1971.
- The most drivers to ever finish on the lead lap at Daytona is 33. Eight races have seen only one driver finish on the lead lap, most recently in 1976.
- In 122 Cup Series races at Daytona, only 10 times has the winner come from outside of a top-15 starting position. 55% of the races have been won from the top-five, and 23 winners have started from the pole.
- Only four drivers have ever won both the Daytona 500 and the July race at Daytona in the same year: Fireball Roberts, Cale Yarbrough, LeRoy Yarbrough, and most recently, Bobby Allison in 1982. Ryan Newman won the Daytona 500 this year, giving Penske Racing their first-ever restrictor plate victory. 

Storylines for the Weekend:
Hendrick Motorsports has recently announced the release of Casey Mears from the no. 5 car next season. They’re expected to make an announcement on Friday in regards to whom will fill the seat in 2009, and heavy speculation at this point is that the announcement will involve the legendary Mark Martin … Though he is not on this weekend’s driver entry list, DEI has named the young Aric Almirola as the full-time driver of their no. 8 car in ‘09 … In a surprise move, Chip Ganassi Racing announced earlier in the week that they would be forced to shut down operations on their no. 40 car, which until then had been driven by 2007 Indy 500 winner, Dario Franchitti, due to a lack of sponsorship opportunities … This weekend’s Cup entry list includes Boris Said (making his 2nd start of the season) and Sterling Marlin (making his 6th start). Marlin leads all drivers on the entry list with 589 laps led at Daytona – 57 more laps than Tony Stewart, and 78 more than Jeff Gordon … Kerry Earnhardt will run the no. 8 entry in the Nationwide Series this weekend, marking his first official start in a DEI car in a NASCAR event.

Six-Pack Challenge:
Winner – Tony Stewart
2nd Place – Jimmie Johnson
3rd Place – Dale Earnhardt Jr.
4th Place – Kurt Busch
5th Place – Kyle Busch
6th Place – Greg Biffle

Lock of the Week – Dale Earnhardt Jr.
Sleeper Pick - Brian Vickers
Steer Clear of – Martin Truex Jr.

Video – Jamie McMurray wins the 2007 Pepsi 400