Fantasy Preview: Phoenix

The Cup Series began racing at Phoenix International Speedway back in 1988 – adding a second race to the schedule in 2005 – and, in that time, only three active drivers hold two wins here to their credit: Jeff Burton (2000 & 2001), Dale Earnhardt Jr. (2003 & 2004), and Kevin Harvick (both 2006 races). Additionally, four active drivers hold an average career finish at P.I.S. of better than 10.0, none of which are afore mentioned. So, basically, this one could be a little rough to sort out.

Jimmie Johnson holds the best average at 6.6, followed by his Hendrick Motorsports teammate, Jeff Gordon (8.3). Both drivers have won here – Johnson last Fall, and Gordon last Spring – and, in their combined 27 races at the track, they total for 22 top-ten finishes. Johnson’s only finishes outside of the top-ten were a pair of 15th place finishes in 2005, and his rookie season back in 2002. Gordon is currently riding the streak of five straight top-10 finishes, and in 18 races here has finished outside of the top-15 only twice – the last of which came back in 1997. Dale Earnhardt Jr. hasn’t been running well at Phoenix these last couple of years, but as previously mentioned, does have two victories at the speedway and is running better this year than he has in a long time. This Hendrick bunch could be pretty tough to beat this weekend.

Tony Stewart has the next best average finish at 9.4, but hasn’t won in Phoenix since his rookie season in 1999. Still, he’s been extremely consistent here throughout his career, posting 8 top-ten’s in 12 appearances. He also has four top-five’s in the last 5 Phoenix races, and is running pretty well at this point of the season, considering Stewart’s normal early-season falters. His Joe Gibbs Racing teammates haven’t had quite the success that Stewart’s had at the track, but they’ve been solid. Kyle Busch comes in as a former Phoenix winner himself, and is sporting four top-ten’s in six Phoenix races. Denny Hamlin also has a pair of third place finishes.

The trio at Richard Childress Racing could be a factor again this weekend. Jeff Burton hasn’t finished outside of the top-15 here since 1997, and is a two-time winner. Kevin Harvick’s Phoenix career started out a bit shaky, but turned it around with a pair of wins in ’06 and two top-ten’s last season.

Roush Racing always seems to have drivers running up near the front at Phoenix, but of the team’s five drivers, Carl Edwards has the best average with 16.0. Kenseth is the only one with a win, however, which came back in 2002. Former Roush driver, Mark Martin, won here, though, back in 1993 and ties Stewart for the third best average amongst active drivers.

If you’re looking for a sleeper pick this weekend, you could be hard-pressed to find one outside of Mark Martin. Brian Vickers and Bobby Labonte both have decent averages, but haven’t been overly consistent here these last couple of years. Bill Elliott ran very well here earlier in his career, but hasn’t been much of a factor in any of these races since going into a semi-retirement state. Jamie McMurray has only two top-15 finishes in 9 trips here, so you may want to stay away from the 26 team this weekend if you can help it.

TZ’s Six-Pack Challenge:
Winner:  Jimmie Johnson
2nd Place:  Jeff Burton
3rd Place:  Matt Kenseth
4th Place:  Kevin Harvick
5th Place:  Jeff Gordon
6th Place:  Tony Stewart

Lock of the Week:  Jimmie Johnson
Sleeper Pick:  Brian Vickers
Steer Clear of:  Kasey Kahne