Fantasy Preview: Richmond

This week, the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series heads to Richmond International Raceway for their tenth points race of the season. Richmond is unique in that it seems to be one of the few tracks that hasn’t necessarily been branded by any particular one race team or manufacturer. The last ten Cup races at Richmond have seen a Chevy in Victory Lane five times, three Dodge’s, and two Ford’s. Another interesting tidbit is that while Jimmie Johnson swept both races there last year, those are the only two Richmond races won by a Hendrick Motorsports car in those ten races.

If you had to look for a strong showing from any one particular team this Saturday night, the first place you’ll want to look is at Joe Gibbs Racing. Though this will be the first time that Kyle Busch has driven a JGR car at RIR, he does have the best driver average at the track. Despite not having yet won a Richmond race, Busch has finished in the top-five in five of his six visits to the track, with his only run outside of the top-five coming in a 20th place run last Fall. Denny Hamlin – also winless at the track – has the second best overall driver average and has finished no worse than 15th in any of his four visits, and Tony Stewart is a three-time Richmond winner.

This is another strong track for Richard Childress Racing as well. Clint Bowyer has been running very strong as of late, and also boasts the third best average finish at Richmond. He’s been very consistent, finishing between 9th and 12th in all four of his Richmond contests. Kevin Harvick also runs well here, having won in the Fall of ’06, and he heads into this weekend with a string of six consecutive top-ten finishes at the track, which is actually the longest streak amongst anyone in the garage. Jeff Burton hasn’t won here since 1998 and has only one top-ten in the last 8 Richmond races, but he is carrying a ton of momentum into the weekend.

This could potentially be the weekend for Penske Racing to officially turn their luck around. Both Ryan Newman and Kurt Busch have experienced their share of misfortunes already in 2008, but they both come into Richmond as former winners at the track. Newman won here back in 2003 and has finished worse than 12th only three times in twelve races at Richmond. Busch won here more recently – in 2005 – but, hasn’t had quite as much consistency as Newman. Busch has only four top-ten finishes over the course 14 races, but he did finish 5th and 9th here last year.

And, of course, we can’t go virtually anywhere without having something to say about Hendrick Motorsports. Dale Earnhardt Jr. actually leads the HMS camp at Richmond in average finishes, and he’s also won here three times. However, his win in 2006 is his only Richmond top-ten in the last six races.  Jimmie Johnson swept the races here last season, but has only one other top-ten finish, which came back in 2004. Jeff Gordon finished fourth in both races in ’08, but those were also his only top-ten’s since 2004.

If you’re looking for a sleeper pick this weekend, you’ve got a bunch to choose from. David Ragan (not available in the six-pack challenge due to top-15 status) has raced here only twice, but finished 3rd in the Fall last year.  JJ Yeley has raced here four times and has posted three top-15 finishes out of it. And, Ken Schrader – who has bounced from team to team the past few weeks – finished 7th last Fall.

TZ’s Six-Pack Challenge:
Winner – Denny Hamlin
2nd Place – Kyle Busch
3rd Place – Jimmie Johnson
4th Place – Ryan Newman
5th Place – Clint Bowyer
6th Place – Kevin Harvick

Lock of the Week – Denny Hamlin
Sleeper Pick – Ken Schrader
Steer Clear of – Jeff Burton