Fantasy Preview: Texas

Ahh yes, so after two consecutive races of short-track beatin’ and banging, the Sprint Cup Series now changes pace and heads to the mile and a halfer out in Texas. They’ve been racing here since 1997 (though they didn’t go to 2 Texas races until 2005), and we’ve yet to see any real level of consistency in terms of on-track performance.

The last five Texas races have all been won by a different race team, to include the organizations of Hendrick Motorsports (J. Johnson), Richard Childress Racing (J. Burton), Joe Gibbs Racing (T. Stewart), Gillett Evernham Motorsports (K. Kahne), and Roush-Fenway Racing (C. Edwards).  Additionally, Jeff Burton is the only driver on the circuit with two wins to his credit here.

Last year’s Fall race winner, Jimmie Johnson, holds the best average finish amongst all drivers at Texas with an average finish of 9.2. More impressively, though, in his nine races here he has only one finish worse than 11th. This is one of only a few tracks that his HMS teammate, Jeff Gordon, has yet to visit victory lane at. He does, however, have 5 top-five’s here, as well as a string of three consecutive top-ten’s. HMS newbie, Dale Earnhardt Jr, won here back in 2000, but hasn’t finished in the top-five since 2004.

This could be a great opportunity for Matt Kenseth to get his season going. He’s a former winner in Texas and finished second in both races last year. Greg Biffle and Carl Edwards have won here before as well, though neither of them performed very well in Texas last season, but Jamie McMurray was able to score a pair of top-ten’s at the track in ’07. This could be another great opportunity for him to keep his newly-found momentum going.

Tony Stewart has been solid during his career at Texas, though his best finish in either race last year was only 11th. He’s still a former winner here and holds 7 top-ten’s to his credit. Denny Hamlin also has three top-ten’s in only five tries at Texas, while Kyle Busch has a pair of top-fives in six trips. This could be another successful week for Richard Childress Racing, as well. Jeff Burton won the Spring race here last year and the inaugral race back in ‘97, and has finished sixth or better in three of the last four Texas races. Kevin Harvick also has three top-ten’s during that stretch.

If you’re looking for a sleeper pick, you could look to Elliott Sadler who won here back in 2004, and finished 12th in the fall race.  Juan Pablo Montoya finished 8th and 25th here last year during his rookie season, but appears to be improving at many of these cookie-cutter tracks.

TZ’s Six-Pack Challenge:
Winner:  Jimmie Johnson
2nd Place:  Tony Stewart
3rd Place:  Jeff Gordon
4th Place:  Jeff Burton
5th Place:  Dale Earnhardt Jr.
6th Place:  Martin Truex Jr.

Lock of the Week:  Jimmie Johnson
Sleeper Pick:  Jamie McMurray
Steer Clear of:  Greg Biffle

*Reminder – Sleeper Pick cannot be anyone currently in the top-15 in points or anyone who made the Chase field last year. Steer Clear of pick must be a driver currently in the top-15