Giuliani’s Downfall

By now, everyone knows the story. In just a few months – eons in presidential politics – Rudolph Giuliani has gone from Republican frontrunner to high-profile casualty. But why, after spending vastly more time and money in Florida than any of the other candidates, did he do so poorly there? Nearly ignoring the other early voting states, Giuliani, spent almost the entire month before the Florida primary crisscrossing the state and inundating its people with television, radio, and print ads. For his efforts, he was rewarded with only 15% of the vote and a distant 3rd place finish.

In such a complex situation, it is impossible to point to just one thing Giuliani did wrong. But his downfall can be traced to at least 5 factors. Some of them have been the focus of political punditry, while others have been largely ignored by most media.

1. Although Giuliani did contest New Hampshire, he was largely absent from the other early states. Spending all that time and money in Florida may have backfired. By not contesting the other early states, Giuliani gained no inertia that could help carry national excitement into the Florida primary. There was plenty of local news coverage of his stops across Florida, but anyone reading a national newspaper or watching a national TV news program (as older people do in significant numbers) would have seen candidates like McCain and Romney building up inertia. National reporting on Giuliani, such as it was, focused on his absence from other races. By not contesting early states, Giuliani gave up the inertia to other candidates.
2. Most of Giuliani’s closest advisers are New York insiders. They constructed a campaign that may have been more effective in New York than elsewhere. Some local pundits have reported that Giuliani didn’t appear to adapt himself to local concerns, and the design of many of his campaign events could have been tweaked to play more to the local style. For example, he was the only major candidate who depended on direct mail in New Hampshire. The other candidates focused on town hall meetings and other personal, intimate events. The Giuliani campaign needed to get more local, but its top strategists were had New York on the brain.
3. By putting all his hopes (and time, and money) into Florida, Giuliani put all his eggs into one basket. Knowing this, a great deal of the media coverage of his campaign focused not on his issues, vision, or experience, but on the fact that he had pinned his hopes on Florida. With the major media focusing on Giuliani’s Florida gamble, voters learned less about him than they did about the other candidates.
4. Giuliani’s major issue has always been terrorism. It was 9/11 that originally catapulted him to national preeminence, and terrorism has consistently remained his primary issue. But recent national surveys and Florida exit polling indicate that the economy is now the top concern among Americans. Terrorism has fallen to at least a distant second. To his credit, Giuliani tried to change course and focus more on the economy, but without his traditional primary issue, his campaign was seriously weakened.
5. Finally, Giuliani simply isn’t conservative enough for most Republican primary voters. Although his focus on terrorism and national security does speak to their traditional concerns with law and order, his less-than-conservative stances on gun control, abortion, gay rights, and immigration have hurt him among Republican activists.