Has Windows Vista missed the boat?

Industry analysts are speculating furiously that Windows Vista, which will be two years late shipping, may have missed the boat (ship?).

The best evidence suggests that the annual increase in PC sales may be down to single figures by the end of 2006 when the operating system is due for release.

eWeek reports, “The two main levers Microsoft can use to spur sales ~ preloading the operating system on new PCs and offering it as a software upgrade ~ may be compromised to some extent by shrinking PC unit shipment growth rates, which are predicted to slow to single-digit levels in the latter half of this decade, analysts say.”

“It looks like the launch window for Windows Vista should have been 2004 or 2005, and Microsoft missed it,” said Joe Wilcox, an analyst with Jupiter Research.

Despite removing the WinFS file system, the software will be spectacularly late when it eventually arrives, prompting a new policy of short-term upgrades and releases from Microsoft.

[From eWeek]