In Pennsylvania, bad news for Obama is good news for Clinton

According to recent polls by Franklin & Marshall College and Quinnipiac University, Clinton holds a commanding lead among key demographics in Pennsylvania. According to the analysts at Real Clear Politics, Clinton leads by about 17%.

Let’s take a look at Clinton’s lead with various groups of likely voters:

• Women – 57% for Clinton, 29% for Obama
• Union Members – 67% for Clinton, 26% for Obama
• Evangelicals – 45% to 38%
• Whites – 57% to 29%
• Those over age 55 – 55% to 29%

The only demographic in which Obama leads is non-whites, where he polls at 76%, compared to Clinton’s 12%.

Clinton also leads among voters who are primarily concerned with major issues:

• She leads by 15% among voters who say they are concerned primarily with the economy.
• Among those who are voting based on health care issues, Clinton leads by 19 points.
• Likely voters who rate leadership as the most important issue favor Clinton by 30%.
• Those who are thinking mostly about electability prefer Clinton by 15 points.

But the Pennsylvania primary is still a couple weeks away, and Obama has plenty of time to make up these deficits. Until now, Clinton has spent nearly twice as much time in Pennsylvania as has Obama, and the tough week Obama had on racial issues has probably pulled him down for the moment. Two weeks is a huge amount of time in this campaign, and plenty can happen between now and the Pennsylvania primary to make the contest much closer than it looks right now.

So what does Obama have to do? At least two things:

1. He and his most prominent supporters have to spend most of the next two weeks in the state. Obama is polling very well in Philadelphia, but he needs to expand his appeal out into the suburbs and other urban areas of the state. Given Pennsylvania’s relatively low Hispanic population, Bill Richardson will be of only limited use to him here.
2. He has to advertise aggressively. Neither he nor Clinton has been advertising on television much until just recently, and Obama needs to put his fundraising advantage to work by saturating the airwaves with messages of economic improvements that will appeal to Pennsylvania voters.

What else does Obama have to do to beat Clinton in Pennsylvania? Share your winning strategies with us!