Let’s do the Math

As we have discussed, because both Florida and Michigan held non-endorsed primaries this year, the resulting votes (and alloted delegates) do not count (at this time) toward the total popular vote or the delegate count. Also, the Florida and Michigan superdelegates will not be “seated” at the Democratic Convention.

So, what would happen if, as supporters of Hillary Clinton (and Clinton herself) propose, the primary voting for Michigan and Florida were counted in the current total?

I seriously don’t think that there is any way that Barack Obama is going endorse a system whereby the delegates are counted according to the January vote(s).

But, just for fun (you know, math is fun), what would happen if he (they) did?

Florida is a little easier to analyze as both Clinton and Obama were on the ballot for that contest – and they both didn’t “campaign” in the state leading up to the primary. Senator Clinton won the vote in the FL primary 49.77% to Obama’s 32.93%. Based on these numbers, Clinton would have “won” 105 pledged delegates and Obama would have received 67.

Michigan could be a little more interesting in that Barrack Obama (among other candidates) petitioned to be removed from the primary ballot. Hillary Clinton did not.

In the actual primary, Senator Clinton won 55% of the vote and 44% were “undecided” (supporters of candidates not listed on the ballot were encouraged to vote this way rather than write-in their choice). If you count the Michigan “votes” as cast, Clinton wins 73 delegates and 55 delegates go to “undecided”.

Based on Exit Polls taken at the precincts, participants were asked for whom they would have voted had all of the candidates been on the ballot. Hillary Clinton still came out in the lead with 46% and 35% said that they would have voted for Barack Obama.

So how to you divide the Michigan delegates? Obviously this is a question for the Democratic National Committee to resolve (or not) so we’ll just count the 73 delegates that Clinton “won” outright.

Currently, Barack Obama leads in both pledged and super delegates. If we add in Florida and Michigan – as voted – here’s how they change

Obama:
1600 pledged delegates
+ 67 Florida delegates
+ 00 Michigan delegates
1667 subtotal
+284 Superdelegates
1951 total

Clinton:
1445 pledged delegates
+ 73 Michigan delegates
+105 Florida delegates
1623 subtotal
+273 Superdelegates
1896 total

You will notice that, while this brings Clinton’s total closer to Obama, he still leads (with and without superdelegates).

Michigan and Florida are always going to “matter” regardless of when they hold their (respective) primaries, who the candidates are or how close the race may be.