No Job Loss Recovery Until 2012

One of the things that has been a feature of economic discussions lately has been the likelihood of a “jobless recovery.” That is, there are signs that the economic recession is over, and that things are improving (even though this is happening slowly). However, the job market continues to shed jobs. It is true that these job losses are happening at a slower pace than they were a few months ago, but the rate of loss is still higher than many analysts would like to see. As a result, there has been talk about a jobless recovery.

Losses will not be reversed until 2012

In order to illustrate the fact that it will be some time before the job market begins to show real strength is the fact that many economists and analysts feel as though it will take until 2012 for job loss recovery to take place. MarketWatch reports the following numbers, from a survey by the National Association for Business Economics:

• 8% of economists expect that jobs loss will be recovered before 2012.
• 54% expect that job loss recovery will take until 2012.
• 33% think that job loss recovery won’t come until 2013.
• 5% believe that it will be longer than 2013 until jobs are recovered.

In any case, a slow job market recovery means that the rest of the economic recovery will also be gradual, since employment is so important to the ability of the economy to function at a sustainable level.

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