No surprise – Fred Thompson is out

It should come as no surprise that Fred Thompson has dropped out of the race for the Republican nomination. His supporters had been urging him to run since the middle of last year, when lukewarm support for other potential Republican candidates seemed to leave room for a ‘Reagan conservative’ like Thompson to energize the party. But when he finally declared his candidacy in September of 2007, his lackluster performance at campaign events and bland policy positions left his audiences dreary.

Thompson’s fundraising suffered from the outset. Since his campaign’s late start last fall, he has raised only $12.8 million, placing him a distant fourth behind McCain ($32.1 million), Giuliani ($47.2 million), and Romney ($62.8 million).

Of course, fundraising doesn’t tell the whole story. Giuliani’s $47 million hasn’t bought him a strong primary showing yet (to be fair, he has focused primarily [no pun intended] on Florida), and Huckabee’s tiny $2.3 million earned him at least a short moment in the sun. So let’s take a look at Thompson’s performance in the primaries thus far:

• Iowa: His 13% support wasn’t necessarily a disaster. After all, he tied with John McCain.
• Wyoming: With 25% of caucusgoers’ support, he came in a distant second behind Mitt Romney’s 67% finish. But since only Romney and Thompson contested that state, it was a sound defeat for Thompson.
• New Hampshire: Thompson’s last-place finish, with just 1% of the vote, was another tough loss for a candidate whose fiscally conservative message should have resonated with New Hampshire Republicans.
• Michigan: More bad news for Thompson here, another state in which his ‘Reagan conservatism’ should have played well. He finished fifth among the Republicans, with only 4% of the vote. Only Giuliani, who did not seriously contest the state, did worse.
• Nevada: Again, only Giuliani, who was absent from the state, scored lower than Thompson’s 8%.
• South Carolina: Thompson’s third place finish here was good news, but only comparatively. He garnered 16% of the vote, about half of what second-place finisher Mike Huckabee received.

With consistently poor election results and little money coming in to fight the big states of Florida (January 29), California (February 5), and New York (February 5), the time had simply come for Fred Thompson to call it quits.

…And if Giuliani’s relentless pursuit of Florida doesn’t earn him a stunning victory next week, he may very well be next.