Poker Math does not require Genius

from Clonie Gowen’s latest Full Tilt blog: “It is very difficult to calculate the exact odds of hitting a drawing hand when you’re sitting at the poker table. Unless you’re a genius with a gift for mathematics like Chris Ferguson, you will not be able to do it.”

There’s not much I hate more than the poker pro/commentator’s knack of making it sound like poker math requires any kind of skill or talent, or anything really beyond, oh, third grade math skills.

Can you multiply by 4? Can you multiply by 2?

Then you can pretty much figure out your win percentage. On the flop, count how many outs you think you have. Multiply by 4. That’s about what your odds of winning are, if you are depending on making your hand to win. On the turn it’s times 2.

Very hard, yes.

Not that calculating your ‘win percentage’ even really means anything a lot of the time. A lot of it is just hot air. Knowing your win percentage isn’t going to help you win anything. It can help you with pot odds to decide if you are getting a good price to call.

Calling poker math ‘genius’ is akin to the A BEAUTIFUL MIND depiction of mental disease. Overly poetic for something much less ‘beautiful’ than it actually is.

I know it’s hard for poker pros not to try to romanticize what they are doing into something somehow artistic or even requiring deep skill. As if zen warriors come down off of mountains to take down the WSOP final table.

No. It is big bellied college football fans.

Clonie Gowen, please stop.