Survey Says! A new direction, or maybe not…

Nearly every pundit, blogger, and presidential candidate in the US has stated repeatedly that this election is about “change.” A direct question on a recent CBS News poll, conducted by TNS (a non-partisan survey research group) with a margin of error of plus or minus 3%, seems to support this conclusion.

When asked if the next president should move the country in a new direction, or continue the path charted by the Bush administration, 79% said they would like to country to go in a new direction. This seems like an open and shut case. Eight in ten people want the country to move in a new direction.

But another question on the same survey may mitigate this conclusion. When asked “Which one is more important to you in a presidential candidate: having the right experience or having fresh ideas?” 44% said they prefer the experienced candidate over the innovative one.

The dichotomy set up in the second question may not reflect reality – an experienced candidate may also have the freshest ideas – but requiring respondents to choose between these two options forces them to prioritize. Although 79% of people want the country to go in a new direction, nearly half would choose experience over innovation if necessary.

These figures indicate that campaigns should remember that experience still counts for something in the eyes of many people. A majority of Americans clearly want to see change, but they may be uncomfortable voting for a candidate who promises new ideas without demonstrating a track record of relevant leadership. Perhaps the two candidates who have been best at communicating both fresh ideas and experience are Hillary Clinton and John McCain. Both candidates have repeatedly portrayed themselves as ‘experienced innovators’ who have been working within the system to change things for the better.

Based on these survey results, that may be exactly what Americans want. Not simply change, but experience with change that promises both new ideas and the professional ability to accomplish these new visions.