Talladega Wildcards

It’s no secret that certain teams fair better at restrictor plate racing than others, and those teams usually have a chevy logo decorating the hood of their car.  In the seven races held at Daytona and Talladega since the start of the 2006 season, Hendrick Motorsports, Joe Gibbs Racing, and Richard Childress Racing have combined for fifteen Top 5 finishes.  Do the math, and you’ll quickly discover that in these seven races have produced a total of 35 top five finishers, which means that these three teams account for forty-three percent of these drivers.  More impressively, six of these races have been won by drivers from one of these teams.

Okay, you can put the calculator away now, I’m not going to trouble your mind with anymore percentages.  Now that we’ve cleared that up, I think it’s safe to say that we’ve established which teams are controlling the front of restrictor plate racing.  As if the figures weren’t scary enough for the other drivers in the garage this weekend, adding to the pressure for these other guys is the fact that these teams are also sporting eight of the twelve Chase for the Cup contenders, so if anyone was hoping that maybe a couple of these guys would be slacking off as the season dwindles down, guess again, because after last week’s dark skies produced for a headache of a race in Kansas, some of these guys need a huge points day if they want to keep their championship hopes alive.

Now, you read earlier this week that if I’m a betting man, I’m riding my mortgage on Dale Earnhardt Junior this weekend, and despite those stats that I just threw at you moments ago, I’m sticking with that plan.  But, as we’ve learned over recent years, championship contention does not rest solely with whether you win or lose … just as important is being able to provide your team with consistent top five and top ten finishes, which is why there’s a lot more riding on the line this weekend than just Winner’s Circle.  The guys on these teams are going to be clawing their way for every inch of track position they can get, especially once we get about three quarters of the way through the race.  Anyone who’s ever watched a race in Alabama knows that even the most dominant of cars will not be able to lead the entire race at this track.  In fact, when we get to that ¾ marker, there’s a very good chance that the guys that finish in the top five could be sitting somewhere between 15-20th place … that’s just the reality that is Talladega.

There are two huge factors that play a role in determining who makes up ground in the Chase this weekend, and who dreads rolling out of bed on Monday morning:  1) Avoiding the big one.  To do this, these guys are going to have to scrap the whole mentality of laying toward the back of the field all day long and making a late race surge toward the front, or else they’re very likely to get caught up in a wreck somewhere along the way;  2) Being able to push and pull.  Not sure what the heck I’m talking about?  It’s simple … you have to be able to draft at these superspeedways, there’s no two ways about it.  If your car does not have the ability to push the car in front of you, it better be able to pull the car behind you, or else you’re going to have trouble finding a running ‘mate through 500 miles, and history will show that usually translates into a very long, hard day.

Oh, and there’s also one other factor that I forgot to mention … your eventual race winner, Dale Earnhardt Jr.  I know what you’re thinking – if Junior’s going to win the race, how is he going to be a factor for the other drivers, right?  Follow me here for a second … for about four or five years now, Junior has hooked his car up with his unofficial restrictor plate teammate, Tony Stewart.  When one of them doesn’t finish well, more often than not, neither does the other.  These two have been working at these restrictor plate tracks together for years, and it’s really helped strengthen their off-track friendship.  On the other side of the coin, we have to consider the fact that Junior will be packing his bags after this year and making his way to Hendrick Motorsports for the 2008 racing season.  Is it that far-fetched to think that Dale might want to erase any problems that he may have caused by putting Hendrick’s number 5 car into the wall last weekend at Kansas?  Heck, maybe I’m way off base here – maybe neither one of these theories will hold up.  Afterall, Junior does still have current teammate Martin Truex Jr. in contention for the series Championship this year as well.  Will he be “pushing” or “pulling” Truex toward the start/finish line on Sunday?  I told you, if I’m a betting man, my money’s on Junior to bring home the checkered flag, but I’m also willing to bet that one or more driver(s) from these teams will be riding his coattails to decent finishes themselves.  The real loser in all of this are the three drivers waving the RCR banner.