Turnout is up among younger voters – not just in Iowa and New Hampshire!

After the unexpectedly strong showing among younger voters in Iowa and New Hampshire, many commentators are celebrating increases in youth turnout as though it was a new phenomenon. But turnout among so-called Millennial voters (ages 18-30) has been increasing for years. That’s an even bigger reason to celebrate – the surge of younger voters seen in Iowa and New Hampshire isn’t just a surprising aberration, it is part of an ongoing trend of greater turnout among young adults.

According to the US Bureau of the Census:

• Among 18 to 20 year-olds, turnout was about 31% in 1996, and after a small dip in 2000 it leapt to 41% in 2004. That’s 10% in 8 years!
• Among 21 to 24 year-olds, turnout has increased steadily. From 33.4% in 1996, it rose 2 points to 35.4% in 2000, then jumped to 42.5% in 2004 – for a 9% increase in 8 years.
• Among 25 to 34 year-olds the story is the same. In 1996 their turnout was 43%, and although it increased less than a point in 2000, in 2004 their turnout was 46.9%. Their increase of 3.9% over 8 years is lower than the other groups, but still respectable.

So on average, turnout among voters aged 18 to 34 increased 7.7%, from 35.% to 43.5%.

By comparison:

• Turnout among 35-44 year-olds increased a mere 2%, to a level of 56.9%.
• Among 45 to 64 year-olds, turnout was up by only 2.2%, for a high of 66.6%.
• And among those 65 and older, turnout increased by just 1.9%, to 68.9%.

So although turnout has been up among all age groups, since at least 1996 the rate of increase among younger voters has outpaced that of those 35 and up. Overall turnout is still higher among voters over 34, but the Millennials are catching up.

Based on the 25% boost in turnout among younger voters in the New Hampshire primary and the similarly unprecedented number of younger participants in the Iowa Caucuses, we have every reason to expect that this trend will continue in 2008.