Wimpers, not Bangs: Political Transitions in Cuba and Pakistan
The political transitions in Cuba and Pakistan were big news today, but they were both inevitable. The peaceful way they are being conducted is the real news!
In Cuba, Fidel Castro formally stepped down as President, ending one of the longest tenures as head of state in the world today. He encouraged the Council of State to choose his brother, Raul, as the next President. This Council of State is itself chosen by a National Assembly. Although the process might technically be considered democratic, it is controlled by Castro and a his cadre of long-time party leaders. There is every indication that Raul will indeed be chosen as the next President of Cuba.
In Pakistan, President Pervez Musharraf accepted defeat in that country’s parliamentary elections. Of the 242 contested seats, the Pakistan People’s Party took 80 and the Pakistan Muslim League N carried 66. Musharraf’s party won only 38. Several smaller parties won the remaining 58 seats. With this defeat, Musharraf’s domination of Pakistani politics is at an end.
For years now, pundits of all varieties have foretold of a major struggle in post-Castro Cuba. The predictions ranged from harsh infighting among Cuba’s elite to armed struggles across the countryside, yet throughout Cuba, the news of Castro’s resignation was met with a collective shrug. There was no fighting or cheering in the streets, no feverish public rallying cries from rivals in the inner circle, and to my knowledge not a single boatload of armed Cuban exiles streaking out of Miami toward the island’s shore. Everything is calm.
Pakistan certainly isn’t calm today. There are parties in anti-Musharraf circles, and no doubt more solemn gatherings among supporters of the Pakistani leader. But the much-anticipated backlash from Musharraf’s forces has not materialized – there was not vote tampering, no voter intimidation, and no raids on the opposition parties. The New York Times quoted the leader of Musharraf’s party as saying “We readily accept our defeat, unlike in the past when losing parties alleged rigging. We accept that we were beaten fair and square.”
It’s too early to tell if these peaceful transitions will become trends in Cuba and Pakistan. As the news settles in during the next few days, there may indeed be isolated instances of violence. The major institutionalized violence that many analysts predicted has simply not come to pass. No matter how you feel about Raul Castro or Pervez Musharraf, peaceful political transitions are still rare these days. Any time one government can peacefully hand off power to another, without hundreds or thousands of innocent lives being lost in the process, is a victory for us all.
