There is Playing the Percentages, and Then There is Idiocy

Checking the matchups is always a smart thing to do when setting your fantasy lineup, but there are some players you just don’t bench.

By Guest Blogger, Ron Bishow

While the country debates if the New England Patriots can go undefeated, I find myself in a similar situation.

I am currently 9-0 in my league, the longest I have ever gone without a loss in a fantasy league, but in reality I should already have a loss. Two weeks ago I had six of my players on a bye, which left me scrambling for waiver wire players like Ike Hilliard, while my opponent had Tom Brady. I had prepared myself for defeat, until Saturday afternoon when I checked my team and found that my opponent had benched Tom Brady in favor of Eli Manning.

Yes, you read that right. Eli Manning!

Why would anyone who owns a television do that? Well, the reasoning would probably be that Brady was playing what was considered a great secondary in the Washington Redskins, while the New York Giants were playing the 0-7 Miami Dolphins. So with Brady’s 40 fantasy points on the bench, and Eli’s eight points starting, I won 81-70 instead of losing 108-81.

I am all for playing the matchups when you’re deciding if you play Dwayne Bowe or Calvin Johnson, but not when it comes to Tom Brady. You play him if he is playing the All-Madden team, same with Peyton Manning, LaDainian Tomlinson, Terrell Owens, Randy Moss and Adrian Peterson. Oh speaking of Peterson another team in my league benched him against the Chicago Bears when he proceeded to rush for 224 yards and three TDs.

A good measuring stick is to play the best case scenario game. For instance, a good game for Eli Manning is around 250 yards and two touchdowns. A good game for Tom Brady is 350 yards and five touchdowns while the worse you would probably get from him are 250 yards and two touchdowns. There is literally no downside. When was the last time Peyton Manning passed for less then 250 yards?

Everyone has that week when they look at their bench and say, “Darn, I wish I had played so-and-so.” I wished I had played Marques Colston two weeks ago when he had three touchdowns, but he had only two up to that point in the season total. I will live with it (especially since I still won) but I would no sleep for two days if I benched Brady and he had 40 points. I certainly wouldn’t read the rumor mill the next day.

The main thing to remember is not to over think things. If you drafted a player in the first two rounds, they are most always must plays or else why pick them that early.

On a closing note, nothing has made setting that final fantasy lineup more difficult then the explosion of teams using platoon running backs either out of necessity or scheme.

These are the teams in which a team’s second running back was given at least half as many touches as the starting back last week, Cincinnati (Kenny Watson 11, Rudi Johnson 10), Dallas (Marion Barber 19, Julius Jones 16), Denver (Travis Henry 11, Selvin Young 8), Jacksonville (Fred Taylor 14, Maurice Jones-Drew 7), New England (Laurence Maroney 15, Kevin Faulk 10), NY Jets (Thomas Jones 15, Leon Washington 8), and Seattle (Shaun Alexander 15, Maurice Morris 11).

Shaun Alexander owners, I am so sorry.

Ron Bishow has been reporting on the sports world for the past seven years for AOL, Tribune interactive and CO-ED Magazine among others. He is such a fantasy sports fanatic he plays fantasy NASCAR. He is currently a contributing writer and video producer at www.newyork.metromix.com.