How Much Are Top Picks Worth?

With the draft now firmly behind us, I thought I would take a look at how teams who have had the number one and two picks have faired in the years following. Today we look at the immediate improvement during the first year after drafting a top prospect.

This analysis is based on all drafts dating back to 1963. Eliminated from the analysis are cases where the team in question did not have a record in the year prior to the draft. This is generally the case during an expansion draft year. In addition, this analysis does not delve into the details of what a team has done with their draft picks. For example, it does not determine the effect of the draft pick staying in the minors for further development or if the player is traded (e.g. Eric Lindros when drafted by Quebec ). What I want to get down to is the effect on team performance, regardless of how it transpires.

While this analysis is not statistically significant, it does provide some insight into a team’s skill at selecting the top picks, as well as how effective and useful that player can be.

Finally, a clear gap in this analysis exists in that it does not reflect other moves that a team makes to improve aside from drafting the top pick. Generally the team that gets the first or second pick is at, or near, the bottom of the barrel. Sometimes you can only get better.

The Numbers

What should be encouraging to any General Manager is that, on average, a first or second overall pick helps improve team performance. Not a huge surprise, I trust. But how much of an improvement is possible?

What the analysis shows is that the average improvement in total points from the year previous to a number one or two pick and the year following is 22.9%.

As you can imagine, the range of performance is extremely wide. As with any draft, some picks perform well above expectations and some are complete busts.

The Best of Times

The top ten improvements are:

The Worst of Times

The bottom ten performances are:

Top Dogs

The top teams with the best averages are:

For a full break-down of the data, please click “read more” below.

Tomorrow we will look at the improvements in the second year after a draft.