Top Draft Picks – Second Year Value

As noted yesterday, the average improvement in total points following the selection of a number one or two pick was 22.9%. While the degree of improvement in total points was wide – extending from -49% to 150% – and some teams clearly better at assessing/trading top draft talent, my general perception is that the average is OK and General Managers are generally proficient at using their top picks. (What do you think? Is 22.9% good enough? Would throwing darts at a board made for better results?)

Now let’s look at the second year after a draft. Using the same assumptions as in the original analysis, along with the assumption that most players develop and improve into their second year, we should expect another increase in total points performance. I will look at two particular performance periods:

(1)The change from Year 2 over the year prior to the draft – this may indicate long-term performance and a General Manager’s ability to pick talent that can contribute immediately.

(2) Year 2 over the year following the draft – which indicated short-term improvements and the ability of a General Manager to spot talent the may need a little development.

The Numbers

This stage of the analysis shows that the average improvement in total points from the year previous to a number one or two pick and the second year following is 40.0%. The improvement from the first year following a draft to the second year is 17.9%.

  Again, the range of performance is extremely wide. Some players develop, some players blossom, some players implode and some were a bust from the start.

Top 10 Improvements from Year Prior to Draft

Best Improvement from Year After Draft

Worst Performance from Year Prior to Draft

Worst Performance from 1st Year After Draft

Tomorrow I will look at who are the best and worst teams in their selections from the perspective of improvements achieved during the second years after a top one or two draft pick.

For complete data, click on “Read More” below.