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Friday, November 27th, 2009

Knuckle Curve

Buehrle’s No-No: Did He Get the Calls?

April 26, 2007 by Geoff Young  
Filed under Stats and Analysis

Did Mark Buehrle get the calls? That’s the question Anthony asks at Friar Watch. Using MLB’s Enhanced Gameday data, he examines Buehrle’s no-hitter from last week and determines that for the most part, the plate umpire did a good job calling balls and strikes for Buehrle and his opposite number, the Rangers’ Kevin Millwood.

The charts are fascinating, but what I really appreciate are the insights that go with them:

Without having seen the game I’ll hazard a few guesses based on the data: Buehrle’s pitches are all over the place, when I see that it usually means the pitcher has good movement on his pitches. A high number of pitches up and in to right handed hitters would indicate a willingness to come inside, keeping batters from crowding the plate. Millwood is clustered in spots and overall is much closer to the strike zone but he got hit hard that night. If you’re not getting the close calls early in the count you have to go with your fastball for a strike and the hitters can sit on it.

This is a great example of using available data to analyze the inner workings of a baseball game. Anthony suggests that Millwood might have been getting squeezed a little. If you look at the charts, you can see that several of Millwood’s pitches came in right at the upper edge of the strike zone but were called a ball. I wonder if some of this might be due to the difference in release points. Buehrle is a lefty, Millwood a righty. If batters pick up the ball differently coming out of each pitcher’s hand, then maybe the plate umpire does as well?

I don’t know the answer to that last question. Just thinking out loud here. Anyone have some insight they’d care to share?

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