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Friday, November 20th, 2009

Knuckle Curve

Measuring Defense

January 20, 2007 by Geoff Young  
Filed under Stats and Analysis

How come all the good stuff lately is coming from Detroit Tigers bloggers? First Billfer presents his data on working the count, then Brian Borawski does a great interview of Hall of Fame broadcaster Ernie Harwell, and now Lee Panas attempts to tackle one of the most troublesome aspects of baseball analysis, defense.

Panas’ method is simple but clever. Basically he takes several different fielding metrics currently in use and aggregates them into one measure. As Panas notes in his explanation of the method:

The benefit of this system is that if one of the measures doesn’t work for a particular player, that one “bad rank” will be tempered by ranks on other measures.

Panas breaks down the numbers, position by position. What I find interesting are the players where there is consensus across all systems, as well as those whose defensive skills appear to baffle the metrics. The latter group could prove helpful in identifying strengths and weaknesses of each, and potentially get us moving closer to a reliable system for evaluating defense in baseball.

Here are some of the players that intrigue me for various reasons.

Leaders in All Metrics
Name Team Pos
Albert Pujols StL 1B
Adrian Gonzalez SD 1B
Aaron Hill Tor 2B
Jamey Carroll Col 2B
Brandon Inge Det 3B
Pedro Feliz SF 3B
Freddy Sanchez Pit 3B
Adrian Beltre Sea 3B
Scott Rolen StL 3B
Adam Everett Hou SS
Craig Counsell Ari SS
Dave Roberts SD LF
Reed Johnson Tor LF
Ryan Langerhans Atl LF
Carlos Beltran NYN CF
Corey Patterson Bal CF
Alex Rios Tor RF
J.D. Drew LA RF

 
These guys all finished in the top 10 in each of the four metrics examined. Most of them enjoy a stellar defensive reputation, so there are few surprises (Pedro Feliz being a notable exception).

How about the other end of the spectrum?

Trailers in All Metrics
Name Team Pos
Rickie Weeks Mil 2B
Jorge Cantu TB 2B
Angel Berroa KC SS
Felipe Lopez Cin/Was SS
Josh Willingham Fla LF
Carlos Lee Mil/Tex LF
Adam Dunn Cin LF
Manny Ramirez Bos LF
Kenny Lofton LA CF
Ken Griffey Jr. Cin CF
Shawn Green Ari/NYN RF
Jeromy Burnitz Pit RF

 
Above are all the players who ranked 20th or lower in all four metrics. No huge surprises here. Griffey used to be a Gold Glove caliber center fielder, but that was many years and many injuries ago. Weird to see Berroa here. I guess the Royals keep starting him because of his bat. ;-)

Now for the real fun:

Widest Spread from Best Rank to Worst Rank
Name Team Pos
Doug Mientkiewicz KC 1B
Nomar Garciaparra LA 1B
Scott Hatteberg Cin 1B
Richie Sexson Sea 1B
Conor Jackson Ari 1B
Sean Casey Pit/Det 1B
Orlando Hudson Ari 2B
Jose Lopez Sea 2B
Maicer Izturis Ana 3B
Mark Teahen KC 3B
Jhonny Peralta Cle SS
Jimmy Rollins Phi SS
Julio Lugo TB/LA SS
Bill Hall Mil SS
Yuniesky Betancourt Sea SS
Jose Reyes NYN SS
Carlos Guillen Det SS
Derek Jeter NYA SS
Melky Cabrera NYA LF
Andruw Jones Atl CF
Coco Crisp Bos CF
Gary Matthews Jr. Tex CF
Brad Hawpe Col RF
Brian Giles SD RF
Moises Alou SF RF

 
This is the list of all players for whom the difference between their best and worst rankings is 20 slots or more. If you’re looking to poke holes in various defensive metrics, these guys are probably a good place to start. One thing that immediately jumps out at me is that the available systems appear to have trouble identifying good defenders at first base and shortstop. I wonder why that is?

Anyway, good stuff from Panas here. Start at the beginning and run through all the positions to see how your favorite players stack up against the rest. Maybe come up with some of your own ideas about how to refine defensive metrics. Hey, someone has to do it. :-)

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Comments

One Response to “Measuring Defense”
  1. Phil Marlowe says:

    This guy is new and apparently a rising star. Offbeat but thoughtful stuff and often funny.

    http://mcgonnigle.wordpress.com

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