Miguel Cabrera, Dark Horse MVP Candidate
March 30, 2007 by Geoff Young
Filed under Personalities, Stats and Analysis
The 2007 staff predictions are up at Hardball Times. I mostly went with the flow, but chose a different path in a few cases. I’m the only writer who picked the Detroit Tigers to win the AL Central and the Angels to win the World Series. I’d expected a little support for Joe Mauer as AL MVP (Grady Sizemore got more), but at least that one was fairly diverse. Where I went kind of crazy is in my choice for NL MVP
Before I go any further, you should know my bias: I can’t stand Albert Pujols. He’s a brilliant player, and I’m willing to give him all the props in the world for that, but he often comes off as a pompous jerk who doesn’t mind showing up other players in his pursuit of greatness. Pujols actually reminds me a lot of Barry Bonds before Bonds gained notoriety for reasons other than being merely unpleasant.
So, that’s my bias. I respect the heck out of Pujols’ game but have no use for his attitude.
Did I purposely look to pick someone other than Pujols as MVP? Yeah, it’s possible. I also still like to bust out the contrarian card every now and then, although not as often as when I was younger.
More importantly, I think I’ve found a guy who legitimately could win the NL MVP this year. He plays third base for the Florida Marlins, and his name is Miguel Cabrera.
Cabrera hit .339/.430/.568 last year while playing half his games in a park that favors pitchers. He turns 24 the third week of the ‘07 season and has exhibited some very promising trends in recent years. Cabrera’s OPS+ and RC/27 have each improved every season he’s been in the big leagues, but one set of numbers in particular intrigues me:
| Year | PA | BB/PA | SO/PA | BB/SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2003 | 346 | .072 | .243 | .297 |
| 2004 | 685 | .099 | .216 | .459 |
| 2005 | 685 | .093 | .182 | .512 |
| 2006 | 676 | .127 | .160 | .796 |
Cabrera is tightening his strike zone in a big way. He’s seeing better pitches and doing more damage to them also. He was good to begin with, and he still hasn’t reached his peak years.
Folks, this is a scary talent. Of Cabrera’s 10 most similar players at Baseball-Reference.com, six are in the Hall of Fame, three (Andruw Jones, Ken Griffey Jr., Vladimir Guerrero) are still active, and Hal Trosky — well, he’s a story for another day.
Will Cabrera win the MVP in 2007? Considering that Pujols has finished no lower than fourth in the voting since he came into the league sixth years ago, he probably should be considered the favorite. But if you’re looking for a dark horse candidate, keep a close eye on Cabrera this year. He’s not quite in Pujols’ class yet, but the guy is a special player who still has room to grow.
Yeah! Being a die-hard Marlins fan, Cabrera is the real deal and then some. Remember he batted .339 last season with rookies surrounding him. He didn’t see many good pitches, but he is such a smart, disciplined hitter, it didn’t really matter.
Thanks, Carolyn, for stopping by. As you say, Cabrera is the type of hitter that can thrive in just about any environment. For someone to have his combination of discipline and power at that age is just scary. Amazing young hitter. Enjoy him out there in Florida.
Miguel Cabrera is truly a monster player.I imagine him playing as a Yankee or Red Sox with the protection.This guy would put up 40,130,340ba numbers just like Pujols.I want him out of Florida as soon as possible.The experts say he is destined for the west coast no matter what.Dodgers or Angels and Giants have been the name”s thrown around.Regardless this guy is very special.Ownership should never have taken him too arbitration.Reminds me of young Manny Ramirez in many ways.Almost a casual type of player,lazy if you will.But at 23 to go 26,114,339ba and a huge 430 obp with a no payroll team and a pitcher”s park at home is truly amazing.Bottomline a natural who will win an MVP or two in his career.Love this guy.Go Cabrera Go.P.S. David Wright is overated along with Ryan Howard.
Thanks, Patrick. As a Padres fan, let’s just say I’m hoping he’ll end up in Anaheim.
Hello Geoff i was compelled after the first few games to send this short note about M.Cabrera.Even after 3 games you can see he is dead set on topping all his numbers again.Everyone is so in love with Pujols,Howard,Reyes,Wright&Beltran in New York & Berkman for MVP they have overlooked Cabrera in Florida.He turns only 24 on the 18th and look at his numbers to date,incredible.The David Wright comparison is hilarious.Cabrera with New York would be a monster at the plate.This pleasure goes to Carlos Beltran who is likened to win the MVP.Cabrera is a split of M.Ramirez and V.Guerroro.You go on Ebay and A.Pujols auto cards go for $200-$1500 bucks.Cabrera you can pick up most of any of his auto cards for $20-$40.The hype on Pujols will cool.This will be his year he has a mortal 37,115,315ba.I like Albert but please he is not a greek god or something.The Mets swept them in the first 3 games of the season.Cardinals and Albert both take a step down this year.Adam Dunn also same deal sure he does not hit 330ba but he will be big this year.I see him at 50,130,280ba.His auto cards maybe $15-$30.He is Mark Mcgwire without the steroids.Anyway they have Cabrera at 50/1 odds to win MVP in 2007.I just don”t see it that big of a long shot.This guy has huge talent.Simply put my favorite young ball player period.Have a good Easter.
Thanks for the note, Patrick. Yeah, Cabrera is a special player. If he keeps doing what he’s doing, he’ll get plenty of attention soon enough. Guerrero used to fly under the radar in Montreal, but guys with that kind of talent can’t get ignored forever. As for 50-1 odds, I’m not sure what those people are smoking. Oh well. Happy Easter to you also.
Yankees fan says yes to cabrera