More Fun with Career Projections
February 2, 2008 by Geoff Young
Filed under Hall of Fame, Stats and Analysis
While I’m waiting for Puppy Bowl IV to arrive, I thought I’d flip through the STATS 1997 Baseball Scoreboard for inspiration. I’ve already used this source to re-examine Barry Bonds and now I see that there are a few more projections in here.
This time we’re looking at projected career hits. Specifically we’re looking at the players who were judged at that time most likely to reach 3000 hits. Let’s compare projected with actual, shall we?
| Player | Proj | Act | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cal Ripken Jr. | 3166 | 3184 | +18 |
| Tony Gwynn | 3139 | 3141 | +2 |
| Wade Boggs | 3025 | 3010 | -15 |
| Roberto Alomar | 2803 | 2724 | -79 |
| Rafael Palmeiro | 2672 | 3020 | +348 |
| Chuck Knoblauch | 2509 | 1839 | -670 |
| Frank Thomas | 2355 | 2409 | +54 |
| Marquis Grissom | 2328 | 2251 | -77 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 2151 | 2250 | +99 |
Points worth noting:
- Those projections for Ripken, Gwynn, and Boggs are almost perfect; the Alomar and Grissom projections aren’t bad either.
- Estimates for Palmeiro turned out to be very low, while those for Knoblauch are very high. Through age 30, Knoblauch posted numbers comparable to those of Lou Whitaker. After that, Knoblauch turned into Kevin Stocker. Ouch.
- A-Rod provides yet another reminder of why it’s dangerous to work with such small samples. He’d had precisely one full big-league season under his belt when these projections were published. Granted, it was a great season, but the fact remains that he’s blown past his career projection and he’s still in his prime. A-Rod is looking like a real good bet to finish at the top of the above list.
Just a little something to contemplate…
