More Thoughts on 2007 Cy Young Award
September 14, 2007 by Geoff Young
Filed under Awards, Personalities
We touched on the Cy Young award last week — specifically Rich at Baseball Analysts’ take on the leading candidates. Now another heavy hitter — ESPN’s Jayson Stark — weighs in with his thoughts.
Like everyone else, Stark has San Diego’s Jake Peavy and Arizona’s Brandon Webb in the top two slots in the National League. Nice to see Stark also recognize what Aaron Harang is accomplishing on a very bad Cincinnati team.
I still think Dodgers closer Takashi Saito belongs in the discussion. Lefties are hitting just .194/.239/.311 against him this year. They are the lucky ones: right-handers are batting — I can hardly write this — .117/.170/.160. Saito has fanned 71 batters and allowed 47 total bases. That’s not quite vintage Eric Gagne, but it’s mighty impressive.
Over in the American League, the situation remains muddy. I’m with Stark on Chien-Ming Wang; I don’t see how that guy is even in the discussion. Then again, he finished second in the voting last season despite mostly pedestrian numbers. Put Harang on the Yankees and he’d win 20, no problem.
I’m also not sure that Cleveland’s C.C. Sabathia has as decided an advantage over Boston’s Josh Beckett as Stark seems to think. Beyond the media hype that will accompany Beckett because of the team he plays for, the guy has had a fantastic season. (So has Kelvim Escobar, with much less fanfare.)
Who do I think should win? Peavy and probably Sabathia (unless something weird happens over the next couple weeks). Who do I think will win? I don’t have a lot of faith in the writers: I’ll say Webb and Beckett.
Why do you think Webb is going to win it in the NL? Peavy’s got him in wins and ERA, which are the two things the voters concentrate on.
In the NL it’s got to be Peavy, though bias aside John Smoltz is putting up pretty good numbers even if he’s playing on a pretty pedestrian team right now.
In the AL I have to go with Beckett he’s just having a great season compared to what happened to him last year.
Vegas Watch: I’m probably being overly cynical here, but I fear that enough writers will buy into the “Peavy as Product of Petco Park” hype and get the vote wrong. Ever since they gave Rafael Palmeiro the Gold Glove that one year, I’ve been loathe to assume that the folks who vote on these things have a clue what they’re doing. I hope I’m wrong.
Geoff, I think your cynicism is just misplaced- Beckett (or even Wang, which would be insane) might win the AL Cy because of a high win total, and someone like Prince Fielder might beat out Wright for the NL MVP, but I think the AL MVP and NL Cy are pretty much locks. Maybe I have too much faith in the BBWAA, though.
Even though Beckett has a great winning record, winning records isn’t everything to win a Cy Young Award. I believe Sabathia from Cleveland will definitely win the Cy Young Award. Beckett’s last game towards the Twins was so bad! ( Sorry Beckett but you just put your foot in your mouth for that game.)