No Movement on Matsuzaka — Yet
November 12, 2006 by Geoff Young
Filed under Hot Stove
Baseball America’s Jim Callis offers his thoughts on Japanese right-hander Daisuke Matsuzaka’s impending arrival in North America. Callis makes some strong points in favor of throwing mountainous wads of cash in Matsuzaka’s direction:
Remember, it’s not unprecedented for the Japanese team to kick back part of the posting fee, and there may be merchandising and licensing benefits that allow the club which gets his rights to recoup part of it. He’s only 26 and he’s preferable to any free agent on the U.S. market, a market in which demand will far outstrip the supply this offseason. Not many 26-year-old potential aces with a proven track record become available.
Right now the Boston Red Sox are believed to be favorites in the Matsuzaka sweepstakes, although the Angels and Texas Rangers also are rumored to be in the running. Mike Plugh at Matzusaka Watch finds the dollar amounts being tossed around a bit absurd (despite objections from Red Sox fans who evidently aren’t comfortable acknowledging that in relation to everyone but the New York Yankees, their team is filthy rich):
So Buster Olney of ESPN is reporting that the Red Sox may have bid between $38 and $45 million for Matsuzaka. If that’s true, I guarantee they won the bidding. It’s also perhaps the single most reckless and irresponsible expenditure in the history of professional sports, going way beyond the Alex Rodriguez’ Texas contract.
If true, it means that Theo Epstein just spent about $40 million to talk to Matsuzaka, and Boras will be looking for Oswalt money at 5 years/$75 million. If Boras sticks to his guns, and all this is accurate, the Sox will be paying out an average seasonal output of $23 million for Matsuzaka’s services. Even as good as I think he is, that’s idiotic.
It’s a tough call, especially for a team like the Red Sox, which always compares itself to the Yankees. On the one hand, they feel the need to show their pinstriped rivals that they’re serious. On the other, that’s putting a lot of eggs in one basket.
Beyond the amounts of money involved, what I can’t figure out is why the Rangers are even in this discussion. Didn’t owner Tom Hicks learn anything from the signings of Alex Rodriguez and Chan Ho Park?
Hicks can do what he wants with his money, I suppose. The rest of us will have to wait and see where Matsuzaka lands. Then we’ll have to wait some more to see whether he was worth the trouble.
Requoting your quote Geoff:
“If true, it means that Theo Epstein just spent about $40 million to talk to Matsuzaka, and Boras will be looking for Oswalt money at 5 years/$75 million. If Boras sticks to his guns, and all this is accurate, the Sox will be paying out an average seasonal output of $23 million for Matsuzaka’s services. Even as good as I think he is, that’s idiotic.”
I think I read somewhere that while there are rules associated with posting, Epstein thinks he found a loop-hole and combined the first salvo-contract offer in w/ his bid…
Jon Heyman at SI.com suggests this possibility:
“A large posting fee may present a challenge to Matsuzaka’s agent, Scott Boras, to extricate anything close to Matsuzaka’s true open-market value. The strategy of some of the bidders was to place an overall value on Matsuzaka, then divide the monies between what they envisioned as a winning posting fee and a presentable player contract.”
It seems the only recourse for Matsuzaka, if he and Boras can’t work out a deal with whoever wins the right to negotiate within the 30-day window, is to return to Japan and try the process again next year or wait until he becomes a free agent the year after that.
Fascinating stuff…
“especially for a team like the Red Sox, which always compares itself to the Yankees”
Not for nothing, Geoff, but they are in the same division! ^_^ Sure, compared to most MLB teams the Red Sox are big spenders. But when your chief division rival has consistently out-spent even the other big spenders by half again as much–when 8 of their starting 9 and a few pitchers and guys on the bench are in the double-digit millions–well, it costs a few dollars to keep up. Money may not win titles but it sure does help you maintain player depth to stay in the hunt.
This is one a a very few situations where a serious expenditure of cash could guarantee that the Sox were the only ones with a shot at what certainly appears to be a very good young pitcher AND that the Yankees would have no such opportunity. There are NO situations where an expensive contract is not risky. Injuries happen. But once in a while, if the skies are clear, you have to shoot for the moon, and I think this is the time to do it and the player to do it for.
Heck–looks like the Sox will pay Matt Clement $10 million next year to rehab from surgery. ROI doesn’t get a lot worse than that! And I think individual salaries are rarely commensurate with a player’s benefit to a club thanks to the huge disparity between pre-and post-free-agency numbers. The Sox haven’t been big players in the Japanese market–this may open up some new doors for them. I hoped all along that they’d go big on the posting fee. I’m nervous about it, yes, but I think it’s an intelligent gamble.