Predictions for 2008
March 31, 2008 by Geoff Young
Filed under Odds and Ends
We’ve got our staff predictions up at Hardball Times. I go into greater detail about Padres-specific items over at Ducksnorts.
At THT, I’ve gone with the popular pick except for AL West (I chose Mariners over Angels), AL Wild Card (Indians over Yankees), and NL Cy Young (Jake Peavy over Johan Santana — there’s my Padres bias kicking in because, hey, someone’s got to have a Padres bias).
I also have the Diamondbacks beating the Tigers in the World Series. We’ll see what happens…
How about you? Any predictions you’d care to share?
i’ve got the padres and dodgers in 1st and 2nd in the west, and the padres losing to the mets in the NLCS after beating the cubs…but that might be MY padres bias…
tigers, indians, bosox, and angels in the AL…tigers beating the bosox in the ALCS to go on and beat the mets to win it all… no surprises, just disappointment for my hometown white sox.
Yeah, this is going to be a tough year for the White Sox. They need to find a way out of the AL Central.
I have a few quibbles with the picks.
1. Tigers: well i’m getting some hindsight here but seriously. their offense is full of regression candidates (Ordonez not going to win batting titles, Polacno not going to hit .340+ , Rentaria isn’t going to hit 30 points higher than his career OPS+ ) and even some collapse candidates (Pudge ’s 9 walk anyone? Jones hitting like Melky Cabrera last year? as a corner OF in a NL hitter’s park and losing his usual strong splits against righties? ) or health risk (hi , I’m Gary Sheffield, plz name every part of the my body that i have injuried over the last 3 season. ) their pitching staff is more name than talent at this point . (only true legit threat is Verlander. but his workload’s gotta be a bit scary) and the pen is non-existent with a farm that’s unlikely to provide much help.
2.Yankees: they get too much bad rep, people seem to assume their lineup will fall off big time when there isn’t much statistical evidence to back it up. ( Damon / Abreu both hit really well in the second half last year, Jeter was right on par with his career # , ditto Matsui, and Cano / Cabrera ’s progression should offset at least some of A-rod / Posada’s fall back). or that their pitching is questionable with the kids while somehow assuming Lester / Buchholz / Willis / Bonderman etc are sure bets.
3. Mariners: not gonna happen, their offense is simply too terrible, people focous on the pitching and overlook the fact that they had a very mediocar offesnse dispite Ichiro! turning in one of his better seasons. Sexson is probably cooked, Vidro / Ibanez are huge regression candidates, and Wilkerson is a downgrade from Guillen (though i doubt Guillen 08 wouldn’t be a downgrade from Guillen 07 anyway). outside of CF. every position outside of maybe C and 3B are average to below average. (with C not that much above average either) . Angel’s offense philosaphy makes most stat head cringe but it was pretty effective last year. and barring another 06 like start they should easily outscore the M’s by a good margin. a lot of the M’s success last year was because of Putz (who’s now hurt ) Sherill (who’s traded ) and the bullpen simply overperforming in general. that’s not a sustainable method to winning. their SPs are pretty solid. but the quesiton marks there isn’t exactly any less scary.
Interesting thoughts. Yeah, the Tigers do have some old guys, but I do like their starting pitching. (I think lumping Kennedy, Hughes, Lester, and Buccholz in with Bonderman and to a lesser degree Willis isn’t quite right. The latter two are established big leaguers, although how much Willis has left in the tank remains to be seen.) As for the M’s, I’m not at all enthusiastic about their ballclub, but the same can be said for that entire division. I had to pick somebody.
yeah, they’re established, but they’re in the same boat in the sense that your not really sure what your going to get out of them. they could both be anywhere from horrendous to great. and at least basing on limited ST and early season so far. it doesn’t look too good for either. particularly Willis, his control seem to have completely betrayed him. amazing, this was a guy that walked less than 2 per 9 a few years ago.