Projection Rejection
June 5, 2007 by Geoff Young
Filed under Stats and Analysis
I was thinking about which players have been among the biggest surprises so far in 2007. There are plenty of names to choose from, but two that really stand out to me are the Tigers’ Magglio Ordonez and the Royals’ Alex Gordon.
Among all MLB qualifying batters, Ordonez has the highest OPS, while Gordon checks in at #185. Only Jason “I Really Need to Find a New Career” Kendall has a lower OPS (438).
Not to pick on any one system, but Ordonez and Gordon provide an excellent illustration of why “projection” is just a fancy word for “guess”:
| Bill James | CHONE | Marcel | ZiPS | Actual | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stats are through June 4, 2007, and courtesy of ESPN. Projections are courtesy of FanGraphs. | |||||
| Ordonez | 850 | 803 | 803 | 803 | 1117 |
| Gordon | 919 | 817 | n/a | 834 | 565 |
I once tried to develop my own projection system. Now, when I’m looking for that particular type of pain, I just watch reruns of Small Wonder instead…
