Knuckle Curve » alex_gordon

2007 AL Rookie of the Year Poll

Geoff Young — Thu, 04 Oct 2007 13:08:53 +0000

{democracy:23}

Another day, another poll. Today we’re looking at the American League Rookie of the Year, an award I haven’t talked too much about in this space. My preseason pick was Royals third baseman Alex Gordon, and although he finished with respectable numbers, he’s not my choice.

Neither is Tampa Bay’s Delmon Young. I expect him to win the award because of his big RBI numbers, but I’d go with Boston’s Dustin Pedroia. In addition to outhitting Young this year, Pedroia also plays second base.

Beyond Pedroia, you could make a decent case for Baltimore right-hander Jeremy Guthrie, although the fact that he managed just seven wins is probably a deal breaker in the voters’ eyes. Daisuke Matsuzaka? His season was better than he gets credit for, but with all the hype surrounding him, that’s just not good enough.

So. Who would get your vote?

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Projection Rejection

Geoff Young — Tue, 05 Jun 2007 20:41:50 +0000

I was thinking about which players have been among the biggest surprises so far in 2007. There are plenty of names to choose from, but two that really stand out to me are the Tigers’ Magglio Ordonez and the Royals’ Alex Gordon.

Among all MLB qualifying batters, Ordonez has the highest OPS, while Gordon checks in at #185. Only Jason “I Really Need to Find a New Career” Kendall has a lower OPS (438).

Not to pick on any one system, but Ordonez and Gordon provide an excellent illustration of why “projection” is just a fancy word for “guess”:

Magglio Ordonez and Alex Gordon: Perception vs Reality
	Bill James	CHONE	Marcel	ZiPS	Actual
Stats are through June 4, 2007, and courtesy of ESPN. Projections are courtesy of FanGraphs.
Ordonez	850	803	803	803	1117
Gordon	919	817	n/a	834	565

I once tried to develop my own projection system. Now, when I’m looking for that particular type of pain, I just watch reruns of Small Wonder instead…

Post from: Knuckle Curve

Dice-K Dicey Again

Geoff Young — Fri, 04 May 2007 15:46:04 +0000

The thing about most “rookies” is that they aren’t being paid like all-stars or playing in an insane sports market. Sure, a guy like Alex Gordon faces a little pressure from hype, but he’s in Kansas City and there isn’t a contingent of foreign media following his every move.

Boston Red Sox right-hander Daisuke Matsuzaka struggled again on Thursday night against the Mariners. The problem? According to manager Terry Francona, it’s a matter of command:

They didn’t knock him all over the ballpark. It goes down for me to command. When he commands, he will go very deep into a game. And right now it’s a little bit of a battle for him.

It could be a simple tweak, or it could be something that requires a little more work. Who knows? The important thing to remember is that this guy has a tremendous track record over in Japan. I have no idea what the prevailing thought in Boston is right now, but I hope that nobody is pushing the panic button.

Matsuzaka is off to a shaky start, that’s all. He’ll get over it. How soon? Hard to say, but probably faster than you can say “Hideki Irabu.” Assuming you say it real slow…

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