Prospects for Haren

In the first, they sent a boatload of minor leaguers to Oakland for right-hander Dan Haren and change.

The linked article provides detailed information on the prospects involved. Suffice to say, they aren’t scrubs. Arizona has a very deep farm system and some terrific young talent at the big-league level. When you’re in that position, you can go out and get a guy like Haren.

Outfielder Carlos Gonzalez is the centerpiece of the package headed to the A’s. First baseman Chris Carter, acquired a couple weeks ago from the White Sox in the Carlos Quentin deal, is another potential impact player, and I kind of like left-hander Dana Eveland, who is putting up some nice numbers in the Mexican Pacific League this winter.

For the second straight off-season, Arizona has gone out and improved its rotation. On the A’s side, they’re perpetually reshaping the squad, and they’ve come away with a nice haul for an established pitcher (whom they acquired in a similar deal involving Mark Mulder back in December 2004). Seems to me both teams accomplished their objective here.

Valverde for Three

The Diamondbacks also have traded closer Jose Valverde to Houston for right-handers Chad Qualls and Juan Gutierrez, and infielder/outfielder Chris Burke. At first blush, I find it surprising that Arizona would move Valverde, who led the world in saves last year. Qualls certainly isn’t in the same class, but he’s been consistently effective since coming up with the Astros in ‘04 and is an asset to any bullpen.

Burke is a utility guy, handy to have around but not offering much upside. The potential gem here is Gutierrez, who was ranked #5 among Astros prospects by Baseball America headed into the 2007 season. The Diamondbacks appear to be stockpiling good, young starting pitching. Houston, meanwhile, has moved three of its top pitching prospects this week (two others being sent to Baltimore in the Miguel Tejada deal). Presumably the Astros see themselves as contenders in a weak NL Central starting now.

Other Voices

• Beyond the Boxscore
• Bugs & Cranks
• Baseball Musings

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On the other side, Carter hit .291/.383/.522 in 2007 (his first full pro season) as a 20-year-old in the South Atlantic League. Good power, good plate discipline. Sort of like Quentin, but without the failed prospect tag.

With Chris Young in center, and youngsters Carlos Gonzalez and Justin Upton on the rise, Quentin faced stiff competition in Arizona. With a fresh start, and assuming he can stay healthy, maybe he will finally live up to his promise. If so, Chicago will have picked itself up a pretty useful player.

For the Diamondbacks, the addition of Carter, ranked #11 among White Sox prospects by Baseball America prior to the 2007 season, presumably buys them some insurance in case Conor Jackson stalls. Jackson, a fellow first-rounder in the 2003 draft (taken at #19, 10 slots ahead of Quentin), has played fairly well since arriving in the big leagues, but it’s always good to have a back-up plan.

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Perhaps the American League will have better luck…

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Game 1 of the series takes place at Chase Field (or as I like to call it, ex-BOB). First pitch is at 5:30 p.m. PT. Jeff Francis and Brandon Webb take the mound. As I note in my series preview at Hardball Times, Arizona needs to win Webb’s starts to have a shot at returning to the World Series.

I’ve said before that I have a slight preference for the Rockies in this series, but really I’m good with either team. As long as the Indians win the ALCS, I’ll be happy.

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Instead of talking about “should win” and “luck,” we ought to be digging deeper. Perhaps there are reasons for Arizona’s success that aren’t immediately obvious? Wouldn’t be the first time.

In his 1982 Baseball Abstract, James identifies a team that regularly finished with better records than their run differential suggested they should. From 1977 through 1981, the Baltimore Orioles won a total of 25 games more than the Pythagorean formula predicted. They were +6 in ‘78, +7 in ‘81, and a whopping +9 in ‘77. That’s not just good, it’s freakish — the sort of thing that makes people scream “fluke” even when evidence hints at something else.

In the case of the Orioles, “something else” was manager Earl Weaver. James’ discussion of Weaver (pp. 41 & 42) is fascinating, but the secret to Weaver’s success can be distilled into two elements:

1. He possessed an uncanny ability to construct a bench — “…a collection of players who can each do two or three or four things, but who when added together make ballplayers.”
2. His managerial style fit the Orioles’ home park (Memorial Stadium) like a glove, or should I say, like a three-run homer. As James observes of Weaver’s approach, “…it is what works in Baltimore, and that is where the Orioles are. All successful teams adapt their talent to the design of their home park.”

So, how does any of this apply to the 2007 Diamondbacks? It’s beyond the scope of this humble article to suggest why Arizona is outperforming its Pythagorean. My intent here is to point out that these things can and do happen, and that to dismiss the phenomenon as “luck” without investigating further is to misapply one of the tools that James has given us. Numbers are never the end, they are always the beginning…

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American League

• Indians at Tigers, 4:05 p.m. PT — Just a half-game separates these AL Central rivals. Paul Byrd vs Justin Verlander looks like a mismatch, and I suppose it is. Byrd, though, is a crafty veteran with freakish control (18 walks in 143 IP). Verlander’s ERA is 4.89 in seven starts since the All-Star break. Detroit’s offense is crazy good — Magglio Ordonez is a legit MVP candidate, Gary Sheffield is having a monster year (including 20 SB for the first time since ‘98), and now phenom Cameron Maybin is up with the big club. Cleveland counters with a nice corps of young talent in Victor Martinez, Ryan Garko, Jhonny Peralta, and Grady Sizemore. These two franchises have set themselves up nicely for the next few years.
• Yankees at Angels, 7:05 p.m. PT — Anaheim has won the first two games of this series, by a combined score of 25-15. Garret Anderson drove in 10 runs during the Angels’ 18-9 win on Tuesday; that represents 20% of his RBI total on the season. Andy Pettitte and John Lackey hook up in the finale, as the Yankees look to avoid a sweep.

National League

• Dodgers at Phillies, 4:05 p.m. PT — Not a marquee pitching matchup, but that’s usually the case when the Phillies are playing. Derek Lowe got off to a fine start for the Dodgers this year, but has struggled of late (1-4, 5.06 ERA over his last seven starts). J.D. Durbin, meanwhile, has pitched surprisingly well so far in the second half (5-0, 3.12 ERA) while splitting time between the rotation and the bullpen. Ryan Howard notched his first career stolen base on Tuesday. Rudy Seanez and Russell Martin should be ashamed of themselves.
• Padres at Mets, 4:10 p.m. PT — The Padres try to put Tuesday’s late-inning meltdown behind them. Ace Jake Peavy makes his first start since making controversial comments about his future. His former teammate, Brian Lawrence, gets the call for New York. Lawrence has made three starts with the big club after missing all of 2006 due to injury.
• Brewers at Diamondbacks, 6:40 p.m. PT — Brandon Webb takes aim at Orel Hershiser’s consecutive scoreless innings streak against a potent Milwaukee lineup. Actually, Webb is 17 innings shy, so it won’t happen on Wednesday regardless. Still, 42 innings is pretty darned impressive. Everyone (myself included) talks about Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun, but Geoff Jenkins is enjoying a fine resurgence this year for the Brewers, and Corey Hart is quietly putting up some nice numbers. Something’s got to give tonight; we’ll see what it is. Oh yeah, both teams are fighting for a division title.

One game: I’ll be tuned to the Mets/Padres contest, but I have a vested interest in that one. The most compelling storyline probably is Webb vs the Brewers lineup. Happy watching…

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Attendance at Sidewinders games has been lacking. Reno, meanwhile, has a rich minor-league history — most recently in the independent Golden Baseball League and its unconventional methods of discipline.

Reno’s last entrant in affiliated ball was the Silver Sox, a Class-A club for the Oakland A’s whose final year of operation was 1992. Indy ball is great, but dangle a Triple-A team in front of a town’s face, and it’s tough to resist.

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Observe the massive signature size, sharp endings, and his print/cursive mix. Carlos is an extremely overly confident individual who is hard driving, tough and driven. His huge ego fills the room, but he also has intellectual talents in addition to his physical strength.

He is quick, intuitive, observant, perceptive, and can change tracks easily. . . . A health struggle is evident in the upper part of his body as seen in the defective upper zone loops.

Now that’s scary. The Stanford-educated Quentin recently returned from a labrum tear in his left shoulder. He writes with his right hand, but the injury still shows up in his offering, Hopper says, because the brain and central nervous system can detect some suffering.

Sure, “health struggle…in the upper part of the body” is pretty nebulous, but it also happens to be true. Neat trick, huh?

I look forward to reading future studies that attempt to correlate the slant of a player’s script with his ability to recognize pitches. Yes, I’m joking, but not as much as I probably should be…

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Julio enjoyed a tremendous rookie campaign in ‘02, finishing with a 1.99 ERA and 25 saves, enough to place him third in the American League Rookie of the Year balloting behind Rodrigo Lopez and winner Eric Hinske (talk about a weak crop!). Julio throws extremely hard but has trouble throwing strikes and keeping the ball in the park — a deadly combination. He just turned 28, so there’s some possible upside here, but the ninth inning promises to be an adventure in Miami this year.

In Petit, the Diamondbacks continue to address their greatest area of need — good, young starting pitching. Petit got hammered in limited appearances for Florida in 2006, but it was a small sample and he was only 21 years old. Petit has posted some nice numbers — including gaudy strikeout-to-walk ratios — in the minors and was considered a top prospect in the Mets’ organization as recently as November 2005 before being shipped to the Marlins in the Carlos Delgado deal.

This trade has the potential to help both teams, but I think Arizona’s side has a little more upside. As a Padres fan, I don’t like the moves GM Josh Byrnes is making over there in Phoenix. He’s a smart fellow and I’d just as soon see him leave the division.

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