Knuckle Curve » baseball_analysts

Clemens Situation Officially a Mess

Geoff Young — Mon, 07 Jan 2008 15:38:40 +0000

Following the Roger Clemens saga? I’ve lost interest — silly me, I’d rather focus on baseball — but for those of you still wondering what’s going on, here are a few links that you may find useful:

News:

Transcript: Clemens on ‘60 Minutes’ (Boston Globe)
Clemens files defamation suit against his ex-trainer (Houston Chronicle)
Clemens, Pettitte asked to testify before Congress (USA Today)

Commentary:

McNamee’s attorney: Baloney (Newsday)
Friends (Baseball Analysts)
Clemens’ interview was a waste of time (Dallas Morning News)

This should get you up to speed for now. My opinion? The whole thing sucks, as it always has.

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Early Look at Free Agents for 2008

Geoff Young — Tue, 04 Sep 2007 22:10:08 +0000

Rich at Baseball Analysts has laid out a position-by-position look at the 2007-2008 free agent class. He’s done the hitters today and he’ll touch on the pitchers in a separate article.

There are a few bonafide studs available — Jorge Posada, Ivan Rodriguez, Alex Rodriguez, Bob Abreu, Mike Cameron, Adam Dunn, Torii Hunter, Andruw Jones — as well as a bunch of guys who are potentially useful. And of course, we’re all waiting to find out where Julio Franco ends up next year. My money is on the Lido deck, playing shuffleboard.

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Dissecting the Cy Young Candidates

Geoff Young — Mon, 27 Aug 2007 20:03:21 +0000

Dissecting is such a gruesome word for it, don’t you think? Maybe dismantling would have been better. Hmm, maybe not.

Anyway, the important thing is that Rich at Baseball Analysts has taken a nice look at this year’s contenders. The American League race is extremely tight (and who knew how good Hideki Okajima has been!), while a couple of right-handers out west are leading the pack in the National League.

What, no love for Adam Eaton or Jose Contreras?

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Examining Braun

Geoff Young — Tue, 21 Aug 2007 15:26:06 +0000

Rich at Baseball Analysts takes a look at Milwaukee Brewers phenom and leading (what, there are others?) National League Rookie of the Year candidate, Ryan Braun. In case you’ve missed it, Braun is hitting a robust .343/.388/.663 so far. Big deal, right? Um, yeah…

To put Braun’s numbers in historical perspective, he is on pace to produce the highest AVG, SLG, OPS, and OPS+ of any first-year player in the modern era. The 6-foot-2, 200-pound native of Southern California is in elite company with such greats as Joe DiMaggio, Johnny Mize, Albert Pujols, Frank Robinson, and Ted Williams.

Sure, but is he any good?

When we adjust for home ballpark and era, Braun’s OPS+ of 168 would rank as the best first season in the annals of modern baseball.

Well, I’d say that qualifies. Finally, I love this line (small sample and all): .468/.543/1.013 against LHP. I don’t care if it’s only 79 at-bats, that’s freakish. Which, come to think of it, is a good word describe Braun and what he’s done so far as a rookie…

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MLB Draft 2007: Day One Recap

Geoff Young — Fri, 08 Jun 2007 03:57:44 +0000

Maybe I bit off more than I could chew in my attempt to liveblog the first round of the draft — I’m willing to concede that possibility. But you know what? I gave an honest effort and I would do it again in a heartbeat.

First off, props to ESPN2 for some fine draft coverage. After the obligatory montage intro, I feared the worst — “If we add more bling, then baseball will be even more fun” — but I came away impressed. The commentators kept up with the fast pace of the draft, and limited the amount of fluff.

For anyone who thinks that the MLB draft isn’t a big enough deal to be televised, remember that when fantasy baseball first arrived in the early-’80s, baseball wanted no part of it. Now that fantasy has proven to be a fan magnet and money maker, MLB is all over it. (Maybe a little too much, but that’s another story.)

Same with the draft. This is only going to get fans more involved in the game. Eventually the big wigs will figure out that publicizing the draft is more than a necessary evil and they’ll find a way to market it. Or to continue the fantasy baseball analogy, someone else will prove the concept and then MLB will pounce and assume control.

Either way, this was a big first step. Maybe only a small percentage of hardcore fans are into it right now, but keep putting it out there and pushing it, and the event will grow into an EVENT.

Meanwhile, here are some other resources you might want to check out to see how the first day of the draft went for your favorite team:

Live Blogging the 2007 MLB Draft — The Baseball Analysts staff do a solid job as usual.
Baseball America Draft Blog — The pioneers. BA continues to offer the best coverage of the MLB draft.
Minor League Ball — John Sickels, another veteran prospect maven, does that thing he does.
MLB Draft University — The folks at Most Valuable Network get in on the action.
MLB.com — The Draft Tracker tool is invaluable; find players by round, name, position, team, school, and more.

Good stuff…

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2007 MLB Draft Roundtable at Baseball Analysts

Geoff Young — Tue, 29 May 2007 17:34:09 +0000

Wow, Rich Lederer at Baseball Analysts has brought together three of Baseball America’s finest to discuss the upcoming draft in a roundtable forum. If you need to get up to speed in a hurry, this is a great place to start. Rich talks with Jim Callis, John Manuel, and Alan Matthews — together they look at the strength of the current draft crop and attempt to project the first round. Fascinating stuff…

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Who Gets the Next Long-Term Deal?

Geoff Young — Wed, 11 Apr 2007 21:39:20 +0000

In light of the recent Chris Young signing, Patrick Sullivan at Baseball Analysts examines some other current bargains and provides a list of good young players that clubs should lock up to long-term deals asap. I love this type of analysis and mostly agree with Sully’s list — my main reservations are with Bobby Jenks and Curtis Granderson, but those are minor quibbles.

Granderson has an interesting list of comps through age 25 over at Baseball-Reference. I guess the question becomes whether you believe he’s more Reggie Sanders than Jeffrey Hammonds. Personally, I think I’d wait another year before making a move with Granderson — sort of like Khalil Greene in San Diego. It’s a nice start, but let’s see a little more before making a serious commitment.

Jenks? He just makes me nervous, which probably says more about me than it does about him.

Anyway, read the entire article and come to your own conclusions. At the very least, this provides a great thought exercise…

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Recent Rule V Draft History

Geoff Young — Fri, 30 Mar 2007 18:41:40 +0000

I somehow missed this when it first came out, but Marc Hulet has done some nice analysis of the Rule V draft over at Baseball Analysts. Although much of what he says applies to current draftees, Marc also examines the draft’s recent history.

I’ve been working under the assumption that Johan Santana is the only good player to come out of the Rule V in decades, but that’s incorrect. Although Santana is the only guy to become freakishly good, several useful players have emerged, including Jay Gibbons, Chris Shelton, and Dan Uggla. I’m still not sure these few exceptions are enough to offset the risk of really messing up a kid’s development and potentially blocking other talented players in an organization, but Marc’s research at least provides good food for thought.

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