Read the full article for all the details, but here are Silver’s projected top pitchers for 2008-2013. See if you can figure out which one doesn’t belong:

1. Johan Santana, Min
2. Jake Peavy, SD
3. C.C. Sabathia, Cle
4. Erik Bedard, Bal
5. Joba Chamberlain, NYA

Hint: His last last name is the same as that of a former British prime minister.

Post from: Knuckle Curve

Meanwhile, here are the games that matter:

• Marlins at Mets, 10:10 a.m. PT — Dontrelle Willis vs Tom Glavine. I can’t think of a better pitcher to make this start for New York than Glavine. To say the guy is well prepared for this situation is to make a colossal understatement. He’ll face a tough Florida lineup, but also a pitcher in Willis who has been a disaster in the second half (batters are hitting .315/.383/.522 against him since the All-Star break).
• Nationals at Phillies, 10:35 a.m. PT — Like the Mets, the Phillies play a lousy team at home. Like the Mets, they’ll send out a 40-something left-hander (Jamie Moyer) to get the job done. Jay Bergmann counters for Washington, and all of his splits come up bad. He’s much less effective on the road, in the second half, and against left-handed batters (hello Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, and Ryan Howard).
• Padres at Brewers, 11:05 a.m. PT — How has San Diego’s season come to depend on Brett Tomko? I’m pretty certain that wasn’t in the script. The Padres also have the pleasure of facing a playoff-caliber club on its home turf. Jeff Suppan, who has been stronger at home and in the second half, gets the call for Milwaukee.
• Diamondbacks at Rockies, 12:05 p.m. PT — Arizona has already clinched the NL West. Although the Snakes own the best record in the league, they also don’t have much incentive to play their regulars. The Rockies, meanwhile, have won 15 of their last 20 games and have shown no interest in going home for the winter. Two young right-handers, Yusmeiro Petit and Ubaldo Jimenez, hook up in this one.

There you have it. Fire up a pot of coffee and plant your posterior on the couch. It’s gonna be a fun morning…

Post from: Knuckle Curve

It’s time to decouple the save from the person who finishes the game, and start awarding it to the reliever who does the most to increase the chance of his team winning. This should encourage managers to use their best pitchers in game situations, and still allow these pitchers to gather saves to use to negotiate contracts.

Of course, he’s right. The contract negotiation issue is an important point. Saves are viewed by many as the definitive stat for relievers, which means that closers typically are more expensive than their seventh- and eighth-inning brethren. (This, incidentally, can be exploited by small-market teams that choose to spread wealth across several middle relievers rather than dump all their money into the ninth-inning basket, but I digress.)

Pinto offers a set of rules that seem fairly straightforward to folks who are accustomed to analyzing such things. Sure, other people may be confused by a save rule that follows Pinto’s model, but is the goal of a statistic to be easily understood or to measure something meaningful?

As with everything else in baseball, if change does occur, it will do so at its own pace. In other words, you are advised to keep breathing…

Post from: Knuckle Curve