Knuckle Curve » baseball_think_factory

Cards Looking at Juan Gonzalez?

Geoff Young — Sun, 20 Jan 2008 01:37:08 +0000

The St. Louis Cardinals reportedly are considering inviting Juan Gonzalez to spring training. Yes, that Juan Gonzalez.

Dan at Baseball Think Factory sums it up pretty nicely. Two open questions:

How is Gonzalez only 38 years old?
What is Danny Tartabull doing these days?

Post from: Knuckle Curve

Neyer Speaks

Geoff Young — Tue, 18 Sep 2007 22:41:31 +0000

Maury Brown at Biz of Baseball chats with ESPN’s Rob Neyer. They touch on performance-enhancing drugs, Barry Zito’s contract, the Matt Morris trade, and more. [Tip o' the Knuckle Curve cap to Baseball Think Factory.]

Post from: Knuckle Curve

Why Would You Add These Two Statistics to Make a Third?

Geoff Young — Tue, 21 Aug 2007 17:18:01 +0000

The good folks at Walk Like a Sabermetrician have posted an article on the trouble with OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging percentage) as a statistic (tip o’ the Knuckle Curve cap to Baseball Think Factory). This is a drum I’ve beaten at various points in the past, with limited success, but here is the problem in a nutshell:

What if we think about what OPS looks like if you write it with a common denominator? Now we have:
OPS = ((H+W)*AB + TB*(AB+W))/(AB*(AB+W))

That is a hideous equation that measures, um… what? Anyway, I agree with the overall sentiment:

OPS is a fine, quick way to measure a hitter. That does not mean that its units are meaningful, that does not mean that it is has meaningful units when it is divided by the league average, or that it is a statistic that has any inherent logic behind it other then adding together two things because it works, or that another metric that combines OBA and SLG in a different way is necessarily inferior or incorrect. As long as you keep those things in mind, there’s not really anything audacious about OPS.

Batting average is meaningful (because it measures something) but not useful (because what it measures doesn’t provide us with information about how well a player or team will perform). OPS is useful (because it correlates reasonably well to how well an offense performs at an individual or team level) but not meaningful (because it doesn’t actually measure anything).

I know which I prefer…

Post from: Knuckle Curve

Padres Preview at BBTF

Geoff Young — Tue, 03 Apr 2007 21:13:47 +0000

For those interested, my preview of the 2007 San Diego Padres is up at the Baseball Think Factory. Enjoy…

Post from: Knuckle Curve