The Arizona Diamondbacks have been getting grief for outperforming their Pythagorean record by 11 games in 2007. Although it’s nice to see that Bill James’ creation has worked its way into the mainstream, it’s amusing (or not) to see the formula itself so poorly understood.
Instead of talking about “should win” and “luck,” we ought to be digging deeper. Perhaps there are reasons for Arizona’s success that aren’t immediately obvious? Wouldn’t be the first time.
In his 1982 Baseball Abstract, James identifies a team that regularly finished with better records than their run differential suggested they should. From 1977 through 1981, the …read more

With all the fanfare surrounding Roger Clemens’ “return” (how can we miss you if you won’t go away?), I thought it might be fun to turn back the clock a couple decades. Actually, if I could skip the part about going to high school, I just might do that.
Anyway, I was rummaging through the Bill James Baseball Abstract 1987 and beginning on page 270, James lists the top 20 starting pitchers in each league. Clemens is #1 in the American League. Over in the senior circuit, Houston’s Mike Scott occupies the top spot.