• Rockies at Phillies, 12 noon PT — I’ve rambled at length about this series over at Hardball Times. Cole Hamels starts the opener against Jeff Francis. It’s hard to call Game 1 of any series a must-win, but the Phillies need to win behind Hamels to have any shot; the rest of their pitching staff is very suspect, and even their high-octane offense might not be able to overcome a loss today.
• Angels at Red Sox, 3:30 p.m. PT — John Lackey goes up against Josh Beckett in this one. Two legitimate Cy Young contenders. Lackey is 4-1 with a 1.92 ERA over his last seven starts. Small sample, but I love that he’s averaging 7 1/3 innings per start over that stretch. David Ortiz had a monster second half (.352/.458/.695) for Boston. Geez, the Red Sox as a team outscored opponents by 121 runs after the All-Star break. That’s sort of disgusting.
• Cubs at Diamondbacks, 7 p.m. PT — Chicago and its $300 million winter shopping spree squeak into the playoffs, while Arizona looks to become the second team ever (’87 Twins) to win the World Series despite having a negative run differential during the regular season. Carlos Zambrano and perennial Cy Young candidate Brandon Webb hook up in the opener. Both of these teams have better pitching staffs than you might realize. The question is whether any of the Diamondbacks bats come to life in October. These are certainly not the best two teams in the postseason, but they are well matched and in some respects, this might be the most fascinating series.

There you go. Happy watching…

Post from: Knuckle Curve

American League

• Angels at Mariners, 1:35 p.m. PT — Division rivals, great pitching matchup (Jered Weaver vs Felix Hernandez). Most days this would be a no-brainer as the game to watch, but there are several good ones today.
• Red Sox at Yankees, 4:05 p.m. PT — Josh Beckett goes up against Roger Clemens. Advice to hitters: look for the fastball. The AL East is slipping away from the Yankees, as they are now 8 games back with 31 remaining. They’re only 2 behind Seattle in the wild card.
• Twins at Indians, 4:05 p.m. PT — Minnesota is hanging in the NL Central race, albeit just barely. They’re 6 1/2 back of Cleveland and 4 back of Detroit. This is a dream pitching matchup: Johan Santana vs C.C. Sabathia. Santana is becoming one of those guys who are trapped by their own success. “Wow, he’s only 14-9 with a 2.97 ERA? What’s wrong with him?” What’s wrong is that he’s better than everyone else, that’s all. Anyway, Sabathia is enjoying a fine season as well. What blows me away about his game is how dramatically he’s improved his control since coming into the league. As a 20-year-old rookie back in 2001, Sabathia walked 4.74 batters per 9 innings. This year he’s at 1.32. Sure, he’s more hittable, but he’s also a lot more efficient (4.10 P/PA in ‘01 compared with 3.65 in ‘07), which allows him to go deeper into games (about 7 innings per start now vs just over 5 1/3 back then).

National League

• Mets at Phillies, 4:05 p.m. PT — Don’t look now, but Philadelphia is only 5 games out of first place in the NL East. Could you find two more different left-handers than Oliver Perez and Jamie Moyer? Well, maybe Cloris Leachman and Paul McCartney, but we’re talking about pitchers here.
• Brewers at Cubs, 5:05 p.m. PT — Another fun matchup: Ben Sheets and Carlos Zambrano. Too bad Milwaukee is 16-26 since the All-Star break. The Brewers are in serious danger of being overtaken by the St. Louis Cardinals for second place in the NL Central. How very disappointing.
• Diamondbacks at Padres, 7:05 p.m. PT — After taking the first two games, San Diego is now in a position to recapture a share of first place with a victory on Wednesday. Slugger Micah Owings gets the start for Arizona, while the Padres counter with the venerable Greg Maddux.

Time for just one? You know my bias, but that Santana/Sabathia matchup has the potential to be brilliant. If I had no other attachments to any of the teams, that is the one I’d watch.

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Of course, there are differences between Zambrano and Zito. The most important are:

• Zambrano is three years younger.
• Zambrano’s contract is two years shorter.
• Zambrano is a much better pitcher. He’s having an off-year, but it’s still better than anything Zito has done since 2003.

I guess the real take-home lesson here is that winning the Cy Young Award can be profitable even 5-10 years after the fact…

Post from: Knuckle Curve

American League

• Tigers at Indians, 4:05 p.m. PT — A showdown between two teams tied for first in the AL Central come mid-August? Two outstanding young pitchers (Jeremy Bonderman, C.C. Sabathia)? Dude, you are so all over this one. Here’s the thing I don’t understand about Bonderman: How can he possibly have a 4.75 ERA? Ah, here it is: Since the All-Star break, opponents are batting .344/.379/.603 against him. The kid’s got great stuff, though; someone should be able to fix that.

National League

• Reds at Cubs, 5:05 p.m. PT — The Reds are done, but Tuesday night’s starter, Aaron Harang, deserves some kind of medal for posting an 11-3 record on a team with a .427 winning percentage. Carlos Zambrano goes for the Cubs, who continue to pursue the Brewers for NL Central supremacy. Did I say “supremacy”? That’s probably too strong a word, but you get the idea.
• Rockies at Padres, 7:05 p.m. PT — Another fun pennant battle showdown, this time in the NL West. Jeff Francis and Greg Maddux face off in this one. If you enjoy watching pitchers who rely on hitting their spots, you could do a lot worse than watch these two guys. For those interested, I’ve got a more detailed preview of the entire series over at Ducksnorts.

One game? I’ll go with Colorado and San Diego, but I’m biased. If Bonderman is on his game, the Tigers and Indians could be a lot of fun to watch. Enjoy!

Post from: Knuckle Curve

Update: Zambrano crossed up his catcher, Michael Barrett, on a pitch in that inning. After Zambrano finally retired the side, the TBS cameras caught Zambrano and Barrett fighting in the Cubs dugout. Nice…

Post from: Knuckle Curve

American League

• Tigers at Blue Jays, 4:07 p.m. PT – Jeremy Bonderman and Roy Halladay? Hello! These two faced each other on Opening Day in Detroit. The Blue Jays won that game, with neither starter figuring in the decision. Also, what’s up with Toronto’s offense? The Jays are hitting .304/.371/.492 as a team. Pretty much everyone except Lyle Overbay and Reed Johnson is contributing. Aaron Hill? I know it’s only nine games, but still…
• Devil Rays at Twins, 5:10 p.m. PT – Scott Kazmir battles Johan Santana in this one. After years of mismanagement (Bobby Abreu for Kevin Stocker — great idea there), Tampa Bay is starting to assemble some serious young talent. No, they still don’t have any pitching beyond Kazmir, but Rocco Baldelli, Carl Crawford, Elijah Dukes, B.J. Upton, and Delmon Young makes for a nice (and potentially volatile) offensive core. This could be a team worth following over the next several years.
• Yankees at A’s, 7:05 p.m. PT – Do you suppose it eats at George Steinbrenner that Kei Igawa hasn’t gotten off to the start that Daisuke Matsuzaka has in Boston? Yeah, I’m thinking it probably does. Igawa faces Dan Haren in Oakland. The A’s right now are sort of the anti-Blue Jays. They’re hitting like a utility infielder (.239/.306/.326). The only guy doing anything is Mike “I’m Still Not Washed Up Yet, So Stop Writing Me Off” Piazza. As for the Yankees, they get enough coverage elsewhere so I won’t talk about them.

National League

• Reds at Cubs, 11:20 a.m. PT – This game probably will keep me from doing my taxes today (yeah, I know I should’ve done them a long time ago). Aaron Harang faces Carlos Zambrano in the Friendly Confines. Bummer about the Cubs’ 3-5 start. Gotta believe their fans were hoping for more after that winter shopping spree. Fortunately for the Tribune Company, which is trying to sell the club, on-field performance doesn’t seem to affect the franchise’s value. Fans, it appears, will put up with pretty much anything after all these years. Meanwhile, Zambrano is walking guys and serving up home runs. That’s not a good combination.
• Astros at Phillies, 4:05 p.m. PT – Roy Oswalt squares off against Brett Myers. Holy smokes, Jimmy Rollins already has five home runs? That’s nuts. Pat Burrell is hitting .323/.462/.484 in the early going. Are they still booing him in Philly? On the other side, Oswalt was my pre-season pick for NL Cy Young. I made that prediction under the assumption that someone other than Adam Everett and Luke Scott would be leading the offensive charge. Yikes, how is this team even scoring three runs a game right now?
• Brewers at Cardinals, 5:10 p.m. PT – The focus is on Ben Sheets, as well it should be, but Anthony Reyes is no slouch himself. This has the potential to be a fantastic matchup. Plus you get to watch that insane collection of young talent that is the Brewers. Rickie Weeks (.242/.375/.606) is off to a terrific start and hasn’t even committed an error in 77 innings (he averaged one every 36 innings last season).

There you have it. Play ball!

Post from: Knuckle Curve

Okay, then. Lots of games to watch today. When you’ve been waiting this long, I’d venture to say they’re all worth checking out, but here are a few in particular that have piqued my interest:

National League

• Braves at Phillies, 10:05 a.m. PT – Take the day off, slap together some breakfast, and watch John Smoltz battle Brett Myers. Sounds like a good plan to me. Smoltz needs just 7 more wins to reach 200 for his career. What an unusual career its been, too. I wonder if any other pitcher has won 24 games in a season (1996) while also failing to win any games over a stretch of two straight years (2003-04). If he hadn’t spent four seasons as a dominating closer, Smoltz would be closing in on 250 right about now.
• Cubs at Reds, 11:10 a.m. PT – Time to see what all the Cubs’ off-season acquisitions can do. Carlos Zambrano gets the call for Chicago, and he’ll face last year’s NL strikeout king, Aaron Harang. If you like to watch guys swing and miss, this one’s for you.

American League

• Blue Jays at Tigers, 10:05 a.m. PT – Roy Halladay goes for Toronto, while the defending AL champs send Jeremy Bonderman to the mound. Halladay already has a Cy Young Award under his belt, and Bonderman could be a contender before too long. All his ratios are headed in the right direction, and he’s just 24 years old. What’s not to like?
• Red Sox at Royals, 1:05 p.m. PT – The Gil Meche era begins in Kansas City. I keep looking at his numbers to see what I’m missing, but I can’t find anything. No matter how I slice it, he still looks like a #3 or #4 starter to me. Anyway, the guy to watch in this one is the Royals’ rookie third baseman, Alex Gordon. If it weren’t for the fact that MLB considers Daisuke Matsuzaka a rookie, Gordon would be the odds-on favorite for AL Rookie of the Year. As it is, he’s still my pick.
• Orioles at Twins, 4:05 p.m. PT – What, you need an excuse to watch Johan Santana pitch?

Those are your games for Monday. If you can catch just one, I’d go with the Halladay/Bonderman matchup in Detroit. That should be fun. Enjoy!

Post from: Knuckle Curve