This time we’re looking at projected career hits. Specifically we’re looking at the players who were judged at that time most likely to reach 3000 hits. Let’s compare projected with actual, shall we?

Points worth noting:

• Those projections for Ripken, Gwynn, and Boggs are almost perfect; the Alomar and Grissom projections aren’t bad either.
• Estimates for Palmeiro turned out to be very low, while those for Knoblauch are very high. Through age 30, Knoblauch posted numbers comparable to those of Lou Whitaker. After that, Knoblauch turned into Kevin Stocker. Ouch.
• A-Rod provides yet another reminder of why it’s dangerous to work with such small samples. He’d had precisely one full big-league season under his belt when these projections were published. Granted, it was a great season, but the fact remains that he’s blown past his career projection and he’s still in his prime. A-Rod is looking like a real good bet to finish at the top of the above list.

Just a little something to contemplate…

Post from: Knuckle Curve

When the committee didn’t hear from Knoblauch or a representative, it issued a subpoena to force the 1991 AL Rookie of the Year to submit to a deposition next Tuesday.

As of 7 p.m. Wednesday, though, that subpoena had not reached the former infielder who, like Clemens and more than 80 other players, was accused of using performance-enhancing drugs in last month’s Mitchell Report on baseball’s steroids era.

Knoblauch swiped 407 bases during his 12-year career. Presumably he’s slowed since then, so the question now becomes whether the feds have a rag-armed catcher or just don’t hold runners very well.

Post from: Knuckle Curve