Players Who Will Be In The Hall
Bert Blyleven
Andre Dawson
Rickey Henderson
Tim Raines

Players Who Won’t Be In The Hall
Harold Baines
Jay Bell
David Cone
Ron Gant
Mark Grace
Tommy John
Don Mattingly
Mark McGwire
Jack Morris
Dale Murphy
Jesse Orosco
Dave Parker
Dan Plesac
Jim Rice
Lee Smith
Alan Trammell
Greg Vaughn
Mo Vaughn
Matt Williams

Post from: Knuckle Curve

Is it the height of conceit to display a photograph of oneself reading one’s own book in an attempt to lure people into buying said book? Quite possibly it is. Regardless, I’m pleased to announce that the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual is now available. You can buy it as a hard copy or a PDF download, depending on your taste.

The book is subtitled “More than any sane person should ever need to know about the San Diego Padres,” and I think that pretty well covers it. You’ll find 200+ pages of analysis and commentary on the 2007 Padres season, the farm system, Tony Gwynn’s induction into the Hall of Fame, GM Kevin Towers’ trading record, and more — including a foreword by Matt Vasgersian, TV play-by-play announcer for the Padres.

Still not sure? Try the free PDF download of excerpts. If you like it, then go for the whole shebang.

Enjoy, and spread the word!

Post from: Knuckle Curve

Congratulations to Rich “Goose” Gossage on his election into the baseball Hall of Fame. Gossage received 86% of the votes. He will be the only member of the Class of 2008.

Post from: Knuckle Curve

1. Billy Williams (133 OPS+)
2. Tony Perez (122)
3. Dave Parker (121)
4. Al Kaline (134)
5. Harold Baines (120)
6. Dwight Evans (127)
7. Ernie Banks (122)
8. Dave Winfield (130)
9. Luis Gonzalez (119)
10. Vada Pinson (110)

As a point of reference, Dawson’s OPS+ was 119. Anyway, five of these guys have been enshrined in Cooperstown: Williams, Perez, Kaline, Banks, and Winfield. Of those five, three were clearly superior players: Williams, Kaline, and Winfield.

The other two guys? Banks spent half his career playing shortstop and hit 500+ homers. Yeah, Dawson spent half his career playing center field and fell a little short of the mystical, magical home run total. He also didn’t get quite the same media coverage in Montreal that Banks did in Chicago, although of course that changed later, when Dawson played for the Cubs. Unfortunately that version of Dawson — MVP in ‘87 notwithstanding — isn’t the one that was headed toward a potential Hall of Fame career before his knees stopped doing what knees are supposed to do.

That leaves us with a lot of really good players. Parker basically is the same as Perez, only he got hurt, had a drug problem, and didn’t play for the Big Red Machine. Baines was a brilliant hitter, but thanks to the American League’s designated hitter experiment, he wore a mitt in just 81 games over his final 15 big-league seasons. Make him play the field, like in baseball, and he’s not even part of the discussion.

Luis Gonzalez is still playing, but he doesn’t fit my idea of a Hall of Famer. That is a poor justification for keeping someone out, but I’m sure I could find better reasons if I looked. Oh, here: Dwight Evans. He was a much better player than Gonzalez, and he’s not in Cooperstown. In fact, you could make a very strong case for Evans over Dawson (or Perez, for that matter).

Evans’ main problems were that he played alongside flashier guys (i.e., Jim Rice) and that his career year coincided with a players strike. Evans still has the Fenway thing working against him (though not to the degree that Rice does), but I’d be more inclined to buy into his candidacy than Dawson’s.

The big issue for me with Dawson is that I find myself making excuses for the guy as a way to get him into the Hall. Well, if he hadn’t rotted in Montreal for the first decade of his career. Or if he hadn’t gotten hurt. The thing is, he did rot in Montreal and did get hurt. If we’re willing to cut him slack for those “transgressions,” then we need to start lowering our standards and admit guys like Dale Murphy and the aforementioned Parker.

If you do that, then what do you tell Bobby Grich, Tommy John, Jim Kaat, Alan Trammell, and probably dozens of others? Oh, sorry, you’re too late; better luck in some other universe…

Post from: Knuckle Curve

On second thought, let’s take a look at someone else taking a look at Gossage. In this case, we’ll check in on a couple of guys with a vote, ESPN’s Phil Rogers and Sean McAdam.

As fascinating to me as the discussions of why a player is or isn’t deserving of enshrinement in Cooperstown are the discussions of why voters think a player is or isn’t. The former question is, for the most part, pretty straightforward. You look at some numbers, compare them against those of other great players, and go about your merry way. As for what the voters are thinking, well, that’s where things get… interesting.

Here are a few tidbits from the linked article. PR is Rogers, SM is McAdam. Note that these are only excerpts; read the whole thing to get context.

PR: I think a lot of us have just been slow to recognize relief pitchers. I’m hoping Bruce Sutter’s election two years ago serves as a springboard to get Gossage in this time around.

Yeah, I can buy the “slow to recognize” argument. I don’t see how it would take Sutter to “serve as a springboard” when Gossage was a better pitcher, but I see the logic more or less.

PR: I was probably one of the few voters who put three relievers on their ballots in previous years when I checked Sutter, Gossage and Lee Smith. I’m down to one this year, as Smith has been passed by Trevor Hoffman for the all-time save lead and my vote for Lee Arthur was based on his being the leader. Sorry, Lee.

I’m having trouble here. Smith was Hall of Fame material before his record was broken, but now that someone has surpassed him, he isn’t. How does that work? If the record is meaningful, which Rogers implies it is through his acknowledgment of Hoffman’s achievement, then how does the fact that Hoffman broke it diminish Smith’s accomplishment? I seriously don’t get that at all. Hoffman’s status as the new all-time saves leader should have no bearing on Smith’s place in history.

Anyway, we’re talking about Gossage:

SM: I remembered Gossage’s hanging on at the end of his distinguished 22-year career and having ordinary — at best — seasons with the Giants, Yankees (Part II), Rangers, A’s and Mariners. In those last five seasons combined, he had a grand total of eight saves. Not exactly the stuff of legends, right?

Uh, Steve Carlton sends his regards.

SM: By then, of course, relievers were routinely posting 40-save seasons — Gossage never had more than 33 in a single year — and his numbers began to look pretty ordinary by comparison. He never won a Cy Young Award or an MVP — like Dennis Eckersley, Willie Hernandez and Rollie Fingers each did.

The only way in which Gossage’s “numbers began to look pretty ordinary” is if you were looking at the wrong numbers. Here’s what the relievers McAdam mentions did when they won their awards, with one of Gossage’s seasons thrown in for good measure:

Okay, so based on the above numbers, please tell me who won the MVP and Cy Young, and who failed to garner a vote for either award. (Note that ‘81 was a strike-shortened season.) Ironically, over in the American League, future Gossage teammate Sparky Lyle did win the Cy Young in ‘77 with slightly inferior numbers.

I’m not necessarily arguing that Gossage should have won an award in ‘77 — Carlton was fantastic that year — but the fact that he wasn’t even named on a ballot gives me considerably less confidence in McAdam’s appeal to authority here. He’s essentially saying that because the writers didn’t vote for him back in the day, they shouldn’t vote for him now. More accurately, McAdam (who has come around on Gossage) is providing his reasons for resisting in the past. Good on him for getting it right, but it troubles me that this type of thinking was employed in the first place.

McAdam offers a nice parting shot:

SM: I suppose, Phil, one of the reasons that people’s vote totals change is because of instances exactly like this one: A voter re-examines someone and reserves the right to change his/her mind. The stats don’t change, but sometimes, your perspective does. I’m not afraid to admit I erred in not voting for Gossage earlier, and I have made amends.

I can’t commend McAdam enough for coming clean on all of this. He sets a great example for other voters by admitting that, upon further review, he is reversing his original assessment of Gossage’s candidacy. The next step would be to provide voters with tools (and understanding of how to use them) so that they avoid making these mistakes in the first place.

But that’s a battle for another day…

Post from: Knuckle Curve

Post from: Knuckle Curve

Post from: Knuckle Curve

Also, if you get sick of watching baseball, you can always shoot hoops:

Finally, check out what the industrious members of the Arkansas bullpen did:

The message etched into the dirt surrounding that little blue cup reads “25 cents in the cup, win a ball.” Yep, folks would toss quarters into the bullpen in the hope of winning a ball. Don’t have a quarter? Not a problem; just toss down a dollar bill, and one of the relievers will throw back four quarters.

Ah, the minor leagues…

Post from: Knuckle Curve

On Sunday, amidst a sea of orange, I sat on a field in Cooperstown and watched as Tony Gwynn and Cal Ripken Jr. were inducted into the Hall of Fame. As a Padres fan, I was kind of bummed that Gwynn got paired up with a guy whose fans live within a day’s drive of Cooperstown (as opposed to the 3,315 miles I put on my car to get there) and totally dominated the scene. As a baseball fan, though, I couldn’t be happier that those two went in together. Seems that Ripken shared many of the same qualities that made Gwynn such a pleasure to watch and so easy to cheer.

I only saw Ripken play maybe once or twice on television — the one chance I had to watch him in person never quite materialized, as his manager benched him for the Saturday night game the last time he came to Anaheim. I booed pretty loudly that night because I had driven up from San Diego specifically to watch him play. On Sunday, though, I finally got to see Ripken in person and he didn’t disappoint. Both he and Gwynn exuded an almost contagious passion for the game. The folks who voted made two great choices, picking players who accomplished fantastic things on the field and who have represented their communities so well over the years.

Congratulations to Mr. Gwynn and Mr. Ripken on their well-deserved induction into the Baseball Hall of Fame.

Post from: Knuckle Curve

Post from: Knuckle Curve