Enjoy!

Post from: Knuckle Curve

On second thought, let’s take a look at someone else taking a look at Gossage. In this case, we’ll check in on a couple of guys with a vote, ESPN’s Phil Rogers and Sean McAdam.

As fascinating to me as the discussions of why a player is or isn’t deserving of enshrinement in Cooperstown are the discussions of why voters think a player is or isn’t. The former question is, for the most part, pretty straightforward. You look at some numbers, compare them against those of other great players, and go about your merry way. As for what the voters are thinking, well, that’s where things get… interesting.

Here are a few tidbits from the linked article. PR is Rogers, SM is McAdam. Note that these are only excerpts; read the whole thing to get context.

PR: I think a lot of us have just been slow to recognize relief pitchers. I’m hoping Bruce Sutter’s election two years ago serves as a springboard to get Gossage in this time around.

Yeah, I can buy the “slow to recognize” argument. I don’t see how it would take Sutter to “serve as a springboard” when Gossage was a better pitcher, but I see the logic more or less.

PR: I was probably one of the few voters who put three relievers on their ballots in previous years when I checked Sutter, Gossage and Lee Smith. I’m down to one this year, as Smith has been passed by Trevor Hoffman for the all-time save lead and my vote for Lee Arthur was based on his being the leader. Sorry, Lee.

I’m having trouble here. Smith was Hall of Fame material before his record was broken, but now that someone has surpassed him, he isn’t. How does that work? If the record is meaningful, which Rogers implies it is through his acknowledgment of Hoffman’s achievement, then how does the fact that Hoffman broke it diminish Smith’s accomplishment? I seriously don’t get that at all. Hoffman’s status as the new all-time saves leader should have no bearing on Smith’s place in history.

Anyway, we’re talking about Gossage:

SM: I remembered Gossage’s hanging on at the end of his distinguished 22-year career and having ordinary — at best — seasons with the Giants, Yankees (Part II), Rangers, A’s and Mariners. In those last five seasons combined, he had a grand total of eight saves. Not exactly the stuff of legends, right?

Uh, Steve Carlton sends his regards.

SM: By then, of course, relievers were routinely posting 40-save seasons — Gossage never had more than 33 in a single year — and his numbers began to look pretty ordinary by comparison. He never won a Cy Young Award or an MVP — like Dennis Eckersley, Willie Hernandez and Rollie Fingers each did.

The only way in which Gossage’s “numbers began to look pretty ordinary” is if you were looking at the wrong numbers. Here’s what the relievers McAdam mentions did when they won their awards, with one of Gossage’s seasons thrown in for good measure:

Okay, so based on the above numbers, please tell me who won the MVP and Cy Young, and who failed to garner a vote for either award. (Note that ‘81 was a strike-shortened season.) Ironically, over in the American League, future Gossage teammate Sparky Lyle did win the Cy Young in ‘77 with slightly inferior numbers.

I’m not necessarily arguing that Gossage should have won an award in ‘77 — Carlton was fantastic that year — but the fact that he wasn’t even named on a ballot gives me considerably less confidence in McAdam’s appeal to authority here. He’s essentially saying that because the writers didn’t vote for him back in the day, they shouldn’t vote for him now. More accurately, McAdam (who has come around on Gossage) is providing his reasons for resisting in the past. Good on him for getting it right, but it troubles me that this type of thinking was employed in the first place.

McAdam offers a nice parting shot:

SM: I suppose, Phil, one of the reasons that people’s vote totals change is because of instances exactly like this one: A voter re-examines someone and reserves the right to change his/her mind. The stats don’t change, but sometimes, your perspective does. I’m not afraid to admit I erred in not voting for Gossage earlier, and I have made amends.

I can’t commend McAdam enough for coming clean on all of this. He sets a great example for other voters by admitting that, upon further review, he is reversing his original assessment of Gossage’s candidacy. The next step would be to provide voters with tools (and understanding of how to use them) so that they avoid making these mistakes in the first place.

But that’s a battle for another day…

Post from: Knuckle Curve

San Diego Padres right-hander Jake Peavy has won the 2007 National League Cy Young Award. As someone who has been watching him pitch since he wore #22 for the Lake Elsinore Storm, I couldn’t be happier. Congratulations!

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Post from: Knuckle Curve

If I had a vote that counted for anything, mine would have been for Sabathia. He and Beckett put up very similar numbers this year, but Sabathia pitched about 40 more innings. Here are the top 10 pitching win shares totals in the AL for 2007:

1. Sabathia 23.7
2. Carmona 22.6
3. John Lackey 22.0
4. Javier Vazquez 19.6
5. Dan Haren 19.0
6. Erik Bedard 18.7
7. Beckett 18.6
8. Kelvim Escobar 18.3
9. J.J. Putz 18.2
10. Johan Santana 18.1

Not that win shares are the end-all and be-all, but still. And how sick is it that in a down season, Santana still ranks among the top 10?

Anyway, congratulations to C.C. Sabathia. Nicely done…

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Post from: Knuckle Curve

I will trust the writers to vote for the right person in any given award only after they have done so.

Update, 12 Nov 2007: It has been pointed out to me that the example I chose to use — Gold Glove Award — does not, in fact, fall under the jurisdiction of the BBWAA. Although the ensuing rant about Gold Glove voting incompetence still holds, it should be directed at coaches and managers, and not the BBWAA. What should be directed at the latter institution are the ‘79, ‘87, and ‘91 NL MVP; ‘95 AL MVP; ‘87 NL Cy Young; ‘83 and ‘90 AL Cy Young; etc., ad nauseam.

Three Derek Jeter Gold Gloves should be evidence enough, but beyond those, a particularly egregious miscarriage of justice occurred in 1999. That year, the BBWAA awarded Rafael Palmeiro the AL Gold Glove at first base on the basis of his fine work in 28 games at the position.

Look, I’m willing to cut a guy slack for making an honest mistake. Jeter’s a poor defensive shortstop, but he’s in New York and he gets a lot of hype. Despite the evidence against him, at least he plays the position.

Palmeiro was a DH in ‘99. Think about that. The best-case scenario in this case is that everyone who voted for Palmeiro was just lazy, not paying attention, not doing their job well.

Other possibilities? Honestly, I’d just as soon not go there. As has been said of many a politician, “Well, I hope he’s only incompetent.”

Post from: Knuckle Curve

Like everyone else, Stark has San Diego’s Jake Peavy and Arizona’s Brandon Webb in the top two slots in the National League. Nice to see Stark also recognize what Aaron Harang is accomplishing on a very bad Cincinnati team.

I still think Dodgers closer Takashi Saito belongs in the discussion. Lefties are hitting just .194/.239/.311 against him this year. They are the lucky ones: right-handers are batting — I can hardly write this — .117/.170/.160. Saito has fanned 71 batters and allowed 47 total bases. That’s not quite vintage Eric Gagne, but it’s mighty impressive.

Over in the American League, the situation remains muddy. I’m with Stark on Chien-Ming Wang; I don’t see how that guy is even in the discussion. Then again, he finished second in the voting last season despite mostly pedestrian numbers. Put Harang on the Yankees and he’d win 20, no problem.

I’m also not sure that Cleveland’s C.C. Sabathia has as decided an advantage over Boston’s Josh Beckett as Stark seems to think. Beyond the media hype that will accompany Beckett because of the team he plays for, the guy has had a fantastic season. (So has Kelvim Escobar, with much less fanfare.)

Who do I think should win? Peavy and probably Sabathia (unless something weird happens over the next couple weeks). Who do I think will win? I don’t have a lot of faith in the writers: I’ll say Webb and Beckett.

Post from: Knuckle Curve

Oops, sorry ’bout that; we’re congratulating the players, not mocking the system. My bad.

Peavy, who has never received a single Cy Young award vote, appears to be the National League’s leading candidate this year. No matter how you break down his numbers, there just aren’t any weaknesses. Yeah, he hasn’t made it past the seventh inning all season, but he’s made it through five in all 28 of his starts. I also love this line: .160/.210/.219. That’s what right-handed batters are hitting against Peavy this year.

Okay, I guess I won’t begrudge the guy his high-definition TV.

Post from: Knuckle Curve

Anyway, the important thing is that Rich at Baseball Analysts has taken a nice look at this year’s contenders. The American League race is extremely tight (and who knew how good Hideki Okajima has been!), while a couple of right-handers out west are leading the pack in the National League.

What, no love for Adam Eaton or Jose Contreras?

Post from: Knuckle Curve

Of course, there are differences between Zambrano and Zito. The most important are:

• Zambrano is three years younger.
• Zambrano’s contract is two years shorter.
• Zambrano is a much better pitcher. He’s having an off-year, but it’s still better than anything Zito has done since 2003.

I guess the real take-home lesson here is that winning the Cy Young Award can be profitable even 5-10 years after the fact…

Post from: Knuckle Curve

American League

• Angels at Red Sox, 4:05 p.m. PT — This is the second game of a day-night doubleheader and features not only the AL’s two best teams but also a matchup of Cy Young contenders John Lackey and Josh Beckett. If you like offense, you might also want to tune into the first game, which starts at 10:05 a.m. PT. Ervin Santana goes for the Angels. Opponents are batting .341/.416/.626 against Santana away from Anaheim. That’s roughly 2000-2002 era Vlad Guerrero.

National League

• Diamondbacks at Braves, 4:35 p.m. PT — Playoff implications, Cy Young award candidate, and… um… Lance Cormier. Okay, forget that last one. Arizona is a remarkable 27-16 in 1-run games this year. People keep trying to write off the Snakes, but it’s not going to happen. Brandon Webb is enjoying another fantastic season. He should have more than 12 wins the way he’s been pitching. I still shudder to think what the Diamondbacks are capable of doing if they ever get consistent production out of anyone in their lineup. Facing Cormier, who has allowed eight (!) home runs in 12 2/3 innings this season might help.

One game: Duh, Lackey and Beckett…

[Update: Lackey ended up starting Game 1 and got shelled. The Red Sox jumped out to a 7-1 lead, and it's now 7-4 in the sixth. If they can hang onto win, you've got to like their chances for the sweep with Beckett going up against Santana.]

Post from: Knuckle Curve