Where Are They Now: Top Prospects of ‘98, #21-30

Geoff Young — Thu, 27 Mar 2008 07:14:23 +0000

Previously…

J.D. Drew and Ila Borders were playing in the Northern League. Kevin Mench led the NCAA in home runs, while Brian Roberts led in stolen bases. You guessed it, we’re back in 1998 for our latest look at baseball’s best prospects from that year. Sit back, relax, and enjoy…

Darnell McDonald, OF, Baltimore Orioles. McDonald is a very fast man who can’t hit. On the Robinson scale, he is more Kerry than Frank. The Orioles took McDonald with the 26th pick overall in 1997. He had one decent year in the minors, in 2002, when he hit .290/.362/.445 at Double- and Triple-A as a 23-year-old. McDonald saw limited action for Baltimore in 2004 and again for the Minnesota Twins in 2007. His big-league line is .143/.200/.167 in 45 plate appearances. He’s hit .269/.330/.390 over parts of 11 seasons in the minors and he needs just three more stolen bases to reach 200.
Brian Rose, RHP, Boston Red Sox. Rose and Carl Pavano sure generated a lot of buzz back in the day. That’s what happens when you play in the Red Sox organization. Boston picked Rose in the third round of the ‘94 draft. He posted some decent surface numbers in the minors but had trouble putting the ball past hitters even at Double-A. That usually doesn’t translate into big-league success, and Rose was no exception. Over parts of five seasons, he finished with a 15-23 record and a 5.86 ERA (87 ERA+). Rose continued to toil in the minors through 2005, when he went 5-6 with a 6.82 ERA at Triple-A Louisville in the Reds organization.
Ryan Anderson, LHP, Seattle Mariners. In retrospect, perhaps hanging the moniker “Little Unit” on the young hurler wasn’t such a great idea. Not that Anderson’s career would have turned out any better necessarily, but comparing an 18-year-old kid to one of the dominant big-league pitchers of his generation isn’t exactly fair. Either way, Anderson never made it. He had three reasonably successful minor-league seasons, then got hurt, then briefly resurfaced in the Milwaukee Brewers organization, then disappeared. In 75 minor-league starts, Anderson went 20-27 with a 4.05 ERA. He’ll turn 29 in July. Maybe the next time you order a steak, he’ll be the guy who cooks it for you.
Matt Anderson, RHP, Detroit Tigers.. Throwing hard is great, but it’s no substitute for knowing how to pitch. The Tigers drafted Anderson and his triple-digit heater with the first pick overall in 1997. After 30 dominant (0.66 ERA) minor-league appearances, Anderson got the call and gave the Tigers 44 innings of 3.27 ERA (144 ERA+) in ‘98. The 6.34 BB/9 should have been a warning sign. Anderson was roughly league average in 2000, at age 23, and saved 22 games (despite an 88 ERA+) the following year. After a couple of injury-marred seasons, Anderson popped up with the Colorado Rockies in 2005 and worked 10 uninspired innings for them. He spent ‘06 in the Giants organization, posting a 9.26 ERA over 26 appearances at Triple-A Fresno.
Eric Milton, LHP, Minnesota Twins. The New York Yankees selected Milton with the 20th pick overall in 2006, just ahead of right-handers Jake Westbrook and Gil Meche. After just one season in the minors (and only 14 starts above A-ball), Milton headed to Minnesota as part of the package that put Chuck Knoblauch in pinstripes. Milton had a bumpy rookie campaign, but then pitched reasonably well from 1999 to 2002. He missed most of 2003 due to injury and then was traded to Philadelphia after the season. Milton enjoyed one so-so season with the Phillies before moving on to Cincinnati, where he and Reds fans endured one of the worst performances ever by a starting pitcher. He rebounded somewhat in 2006 before spending most of ‘07 on the shelf. Now 32 years old, Milton owns a career 87-84 record with a 5.01 ERA (93 ERA+) over parts of 10 seasons. His most comparable pitchers by age are guys like Jose Lima, Esteban Loiza, James Baldwin, Shawn Estes, Darren Oliver… have you fallen asleep yet? Anyway, Milton also managed to spin a no-hitter back in ‘99. That almost certainly will end up being the highlight of his career.
Russell Branyan, 3B, Cleveland Indians. Branyan probably deserved a better career than he’s had. Unfortunately, he strikes out at a legendary rate, and many decision makers view that particular type of out as worse than other types. The Indians tabbed Branyan with their seventh-round pick in the 1994 draft. In ‘96 he put himself on the prospect map by launching 40 homers in the South Atlantic League. The next year, he pounded 39 more in the Carolina and Eastern Leagues. Branyan got cups of coffee with the big club in ‘98 and ‘99, and split 2000 between Cleveland and Triple-A Buffalo. In 2001, his first full big-league season, Branyan hit .232/.316/.486 (108 OPS+) with 20 home runs in 361 plate appearances. He also fanned 132 times, which really is amazing. In ‘02, he hit 24 more homers with the Indians and Reds, to whom he was traded (for Ben Broussard) in June. Since then, Branyan has never had as many as 300 plate appearances in a season. He has produced, though — specifically homers, walks, and strikeouts (three true outcomes). Over parts of 10 seasons, Branyan owns a .229/.327/.478 (107 OPS+) batting line. He also has struck out in 34.8% of his trips to the plate. The latter number will keep him from ever getting a chance to start, but figures to endow him with a cult following long after his career has ended (Ken Phelps and Rob Deer send their regards).
Bruce Chen, LHP, Atlanta Braves. Chen, who had one of the more fascinating backgrounds of this group, first signed with the Braves in 1993 as a 16-year-old. After three years of Rookie and Short-Season ball, Chen moved up to the South Atlantic League in 1997 and at times dominated. He finished 12-7 with a pedestrian 3.51 ERA but a stellar 11.22 K/9 and 4.14 K/BB. He split the next season between Double- and Triple-A, and even made four starts for Atlanta. Chen split 1999 between Richmond and the big club, and in 2000 he worked out of the Braves bullpen before being traded to Philadelphia in July for Dennis Cook and Turk Wendell. Since then, Chen has bounced around the league, pitching for nine teams in 10 years. He appeared to break through in 2005 with the Orioles, when he went 13-10 with a 3.83 ERA (113 ERA+), but his game fizzled the next season. Chen made five relief appearances for the Texas Rangers in 2007. Now a few months shy of 31, he owns a 35-37 career record and a 4.63 ERA (95 ERA+).
Scott Elarton, RHP, Houston Astros. A lot of smart baseball people I know were really high on Elarton after his strong showing (124 IP, 3.48 ERA, 128 ERA+, 8.78 K/9) as a swingman for Houston in 1999 at age 23. Unfortunately, his career didn’t unfold quite the way they’d envisioned. Elarton, the Astros’ first pick in the 1994 draft (what a terrible year for first-round pitchers: Paul Wilson, C.J. Nitkowski, the late Doug Million, etc.), burst onto the prospect scene in ‘97. His ERA (3.85) wasn’t spectacular at Double- and Triple-A, but he struck out a ton of batters (well, 9.19 per 9 if you want to be technical). He followed that up with another solid season split between New Orleans and the big club. Then, after the fine ‘99 campaign we’ve already mentioned, Elarton spent the entire 2000 season in the Astros’ rotation. The good news is that he won 17 games. The bad news is that his ERA (4.81) was too high, and his strikeouts (6.12 per 9) had plummeted to an alarming degree. Elarton proceeded to battle injuries and a stint in Colorado before moving onto Cleveland and Kansas City, where things haven’t been much better. Over parts of nine seasons, Elarton is 56-60 with a 5.31 ERA (86 ERA+). His list of most comparable pitchers through age 31 is littered with uninspiring names. Actually, Sugar Cain and Phil Collins are cool names; they just weren’t exciting pitchers.
Grant Roberts, RHP, New York Mets.. The Mets tabbed Roberts in the 11th round of the 1995 draft. Two years later, he went 11-3 with a 2.35 ERA and strong peripherals in Low-A ball at age 19. In hindsight, my suspicion is that folks got a little too giddy over that initial success. Roberts saw his ERA balloon into the 4.00s over the next couple seasons, during which he experienced a concurrent drop in strikeouts. After working almost exclusively as a starter in the minors, Roberts shifted to the bullpen with the big club. He found some success in his new role, most notably in 2002, when he posted a 2.20 ERA (181 ERA+) in 34 appearances. Roberts was injured (shoulder) for much of the following two seasons, and last pitched in the majors in 2004. He got into nine games for Double-A Trenton in 2005, but hasn’t been heard from since. Over parts of five seasons, Roberts went 4-4 with a 4.25 ERA (97 ERA+) and 1 save.
Eric Chavez, 3B, Oakland A’s. Like Roberts, Chavez came out of San Diego. Taken with the 10th pick overall in 1996, Chavez passed up a USC scholarship and signed with the A’s. The next year, in an extremely aggressive move, the club sent Chavez to Visalia in the High-A California League. He responded by hitting .271/.320/.444 — not great, but certainly respectable for a teenager in that league. Chavez exploded the following year at Double- and Triple-A, and by the end of 1998 was well on his way to establishing himself as Oakland’s starting third baseman at the ripe old age of 20. Chavez enjoyed productive years from 2001 through 2004, before slipping a bit in his age 27 season. His last two campaigns have been truncated by injuries, and he appears to have settled in at a lower level of production. Now entering his thirties, Chavez owns a career line of .269/.347/.486 (117 OPS+) and has knocked 227 big-league homers. His list of similar players at the same age includes Scott Rolen and Troy Glaus, two other third basemen whose careers stalled a little earlier than anyone could have expected.

As always, thanks for joining me in our look back at the top prospects of ‘98. Our next installment includes a potential future Hall-of-Fame first baseman, a couple decent outfielders, and a guy whose career has taken some unexpected twists and turns. Until then…

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Where Are They Now: Top Prospects of ‘98, #21-30