Knuckle Curve » jeff_suppan

Rangers Sign Jennings

Geoff Young — Sat, 19 Jan 2008 20:28:32 +0000

The Texas Rangers have signed right-hander Jason Jennings to a 1-year deal worth $4 million. The story to date: Jennings was pretty good as a rookie with Colorado in 2002. Then he had three seasons of extreme blahness, followed by a terrific showing in 2006, after which the Rockies shipped him to Houston, where he pitched poorly and got hurt.

Jennings went 2-9 with a 6.45 ERA for the Astros in 2007. He underwent elbow surgery in August and is expected to be ready by Opening Day.

Jennings owns a career record of 60-65 with a 4.91 ERA; he spent much of his early career pitching at Coors Field, so his ERA+ is 99, or roughly average. Jennings’ list of similar pitchers through age 29 — Jeff Suppan, Matt Clement, Kyle Lohse, etc. — isn’t exciting, but if he can stay healthy, this could work out well for the Rangers. At his best, Jennings eats innings, and it’s not like his new home park will faze him.

The one drawback is that now we won’t get to watch Jennings bat. Jennings was an excellent hitter in college and owns a career .207/.252/.268 line in the big leagues.

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Sunday Playoff Scramble

Geoff Young — Sun, 30 Sep 2007 14:59:50 +0000

This is it. The final day of the regular season. Four teams are fighting for the final two playoff spots in the National League. Baseball Prospectus is tracking the odds as each game finishes this weekend, while David Pinto keeps us posted on his massive tie scenario.

Meanwhile, here are the games that matter:

Marlins at Mets, 10:10 a.m. PT — Dontrelle Willis vs Tom Glavine. I can’t think of a better pitcher to make this start for New York than Glavine. To say the guy is well prepared for this situation is to make a colossal understatement. He’ll face a tough Florida lineup, but also a pitcher in Willis who has been a disaster in the second half (batters are hitting .315/.383/.522 against him since the All-Star break).
Nationals at Phillies, 10:35 a.m. PT — Like the Mets, the Phillies play a lousy team at home. Like the Mets, they’ll send out a 40-something left-hander (Jamie Moyer) to get the job done. Jay Bergmann counters for Washington, and all of his splits come up bad. He’s much less effective on the road, in the second half, and against left-handed batters (hello Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, and Ryan Howard).
Padres at Brewers, 11:05 a.m. PT — How has San Diego’s season come to depend on Brett Tomko? I’m pretty certain that wasn’t in the script. The Padres also have the pleasure of facing a playoff-caliber club on its home turf. Jeff Suppan, who has been stronger at home and in the second half, gets the call for Milwaukee.
Diamondbacks at Rockies, 12:05 p.m. PT — Arizona has already clinched the NL West. Although the Snakes own the best record in the league, they also don’t have much incentive to play their regulars. The Rockies, meanwhile, have won 15 of their last 20 games and have shown no interest in going home for the winter. Two young right-handers, Yusmeiro Petit and Ubaldo Jimenez, hook up in this one.

There you have it. Fire up a pot of coffee and plant your posterior on the couch. It’s gonna be a fun morning…

Post from: Knuckle Curve

Where the Inefficiencies Are

Geoff Young — Mon, 07 May 2007 21:37:36 +0000

Jeff Sackmann has an article up at The Hardball Times (full disclosure: I am a contributor to THT) called “The New Inefficiency.” In it, Jeff identifies risk acceptance as the current market inefficiency. Identifying and exploiting such inefficiencies is a key strategy employed by “small-market” teams to help reduce the effect of budgetary imbalances between them and their richer counterparts.

For example, as chronicled in Moneyball, the Oakland A’s at one time were able to exploit teams’ lack of demand for players with high on-base percentage. Now that this is common knowledge, they are no longer able to use that particular inefficiency to their fullest advantage.

But the A’s, as any smart organization will do, have adapted and found new ways to help level the playing field. And they’re not the only ones. Here are some concrete examples from the article:

That could mean, as in Cleveland’s case, starting the year with a bunch of platoons with the understanding that some halves of those platoons won’t be available for a month here and there. For Toronto, it means fully expecting to use eight or nine starters to get through the year. For Oakland, it means accepting that you may have to improvise to put three outfielders and a designated hitter in the lineup every night.

Fascinating concept. The San Diego Padres have been doing this with their bullpen for years. While other teams are throwing money at guys with more of a track record, the Padres tend to gravitate toward pitchers that are flawed in some way. Grab enough of them, and you increase the odds that you’ll make it through the season with a decent aggregate performance from your relievers. It doesn’t always work perfectly, but that’s where “risk” comes into play — and why these players don’t cost as much as Danys Baez or Jeff Suppan.

How will teams exploit this “new inefficiency”? This is an excellent question; however, I expect that we’re a bit late in asking it. Jeff has pointed out several examples where organizations already are using risk to their advantage, which most likely means that organizations only just now getting around to it may have missed the proverbial boat.

The good news is, there will be other inefficiencies down the line to exploit. Such is the nature of markets…

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