First off, the American League West:

1. Angels – They’ve won the division, as expected. The team from Anaheim still has a chance to finish with the best record in all of baseball; that’s good because I also picked the Angels to win the World Series.
2. Rangers – What was I thinking? Probably that their offense couldn’t be too bad in that park. Sammy Sosa is a feel-good story. Well, sort of… I guess. The rotation is terrible; I expected better out of Kevin Millwood and Brandon McCarthy, which probably was a mistake.
3. A’s – How bad would they be if they hadn’t traded Mark Mulder for Danny Haren? Re-acquiring Jack Cust was a shrewd move, as was finally dumping Jason Kendall. This is a smart organization; it shouldn’t take long for them to get back on top.
4. Mariners – They’ll finish with a winning record, which is amazing. Steady production throughout the lineup, mediocre rotation, stellar bullpen. If Mike Hargrove hadn’t unexpectedly stepped down mid-season, I’d give him strong consideration for Manager of the Year.

I feel pretty good about the Angels and A’s picks, but totally bombed on the other two. Ah well, maybe the AL Central will be better…

Post from: Knuckle Curve

The charts are fascinating, but what I really appreciate are the insights that go with them:

Without having seen the game I’ll hazard a few guesses based on the data: Buehrle’s pitches are all over the place, when I see that it usually means the pitcher has good movement on his pitches. A high number of pitches up and in to right handed hitters would indicate a willingness to come inside, keeping batters from crowding the plate. Millwood is clustered in spots and overall is much closer to the strike zone but he got hit hard that night. If you’re not getting the close calls early in the count you have to go with your fastball for a strike and the hitters can sit on it.

This is a great example of using available data to analyze the inner workings of a baseball game. Anthony suggests that Millwood might have been getting squeezed a little. If you look at the charts, you can see that several of Millwood’s pitches came in right at the upper edge of the strike zone but were called a ball. I wonder if some of this might be due to the difference in release points. Buehrle is a lefty, Millwood a righty. If batters pick up the ball differently coming out of each pitcher’s hand, then maybe the plate umpire does as well?

I don’t know the answer to that last question. Just thinking out loud here. Anyone have some insight they’d care to share?

Post from: Knuckle Curve