On Hanley Ramirez, before his monster rookie campaign (.292/.353/.480 at age 22) with the Florida Marlins:

There’s no indication that he is ready for the major leagues, but the Marlins are apparently going to let him try.

On Jimmy Rollins, in 2004 (three years before he won the NL MVP):

In any event, his power and speed both appear to be dissipating, and without those he won’t hold a starting job for long.

On Chase Utley, before the 2005 season (in which he hit .291/.376/.540):

Utley is not going to be a star, but second base is a thin position and his extra-base power should provide the Phillies with a competitive advantage.

On the Chicago White Sox, before 2005:

Their opportunity has passed; the constant exodus of talent will relegate this team to second-tier status.

The folks at Prospectus almost nailed this one. They were a year early, and they forgot the part about winning a World Championship. Ah, the devil is in the details…

Fun stuff here. Be sure to read the entire article over at Seamheads.com.

Post from: Knuckle Curve

• The Mets beat the Marlins, 7-2. The planet’s best pitcher against a Triple-A squad — who could’ve have anticipated such a result? Uh, everyone.
• The Pittsburgh/Atlanta game was insane. The Pirates took a 9-4 lead into the bottom of the ninth, but the Braves tied. Then the Bucs jumped ahead in the 12th, 12-9, before allowing two runs in the bottom half and hanging on for a 12-11 victory. Xavier Nady, whom I’ve been following since he took home Cal League MVP honors in 2001 while playing for a great Lake Elsinore Storm club (Peavy and Mets left-hander Oliver Perez also played on that team, which went 91-49), knocked two homers, including the game winner.
• The Giants really stink. Good thing they’re paying Barry Zito all that money.
• The Brewers and Cubs ran a clinic on how not to close a game. Locked in a scoreless tie headed to the ninth, Milwaukee plated three runs in the top half off “closer” Kerry Wood, then watched “closer” Eric Gagne cough up three of his own in the bottom half. The Brewers scored in the top of the 10th and hung on to win, 4-3. Who got credit for the victory? The least deserving guy in the ballpark, of course: Gagne. The next time someone tries to tell you that a pitcher is good because of his won-loss record, remind them that the rules dictating how a win is “earned” don’t necessarily correlate with actually contributing to victory.
• Break up the Nationals. With Monday’s 11-6 drubbing of Philadelphia, they’re assured of finishing no worse than 2-160 this year.
• Livan Hernandez pitched well in his Twins debut. Actually, for all the grief Minnesota took in signing him, he matched Johan Santana’s line — two runs in seven innings — and got the win. Not that he’ll keep pace with Santana beyond, oh, right about now, but still…
• The White Sox seem to be a sexy dark horse candidate this season, but I just don’t see it. By my count, they’ve got about three or four good pitchers, depending on whether you believe Octavio Dotel can stay of the disabled list. One of them (Mark Buehrle) got absolutely pounded at Cleveland. Granted, the Indians will do that to a pitcher, but if the White Sox can’t win behind Buehrle, then what are they going to do when, say, Gavin Floyd toes the slab?

Good times, my friends. Good times…

Post from: Knuckle Curve

Even after signing Jose Castillo on Christmas Eve, the Marlins may not be done giving themselves third base options.

Only in Miami, where the Marlins’ owner has trained his team’s “fans” to expect nothing and like it, could this even be in doubt. Castillo hit .244/.270/.335 for the Pirates in 2007. Huh, so he might not be the answer at third?

Other players being considered include Jorge Cantu and Dallas McPherson. Cantu hit .252/.331/.357 last season for the Devil Rays and the Reds. McPherson didn’t play in 2007 due to injury, but hit .261/.298/.478 the previous year for the Angels.

Yep, things sure are looking up in Florida…

Post from: Knuckle Curve

1. More great games, fewer Congressional investigations.
2. A commissioner who isn’t one of the owners. Yeah, I know technically he isn’t one of the owners anymore, but he’s one of the owners.
3. Hall of Fame enshrinement for Bert Blyleven, Goose Gossage, and Tim Raines.
4. Enough with the Red Sox already. It was kinda cute the first time, but now it’s just annoying.
5. A real owner for the Marlins, and not someone who only knows how to destroy big-league franchises.
6. One more season for Julio Franco.
7. Seventy wins for the Royals and Pirates.
8. No domed stadiums, designated hitters, or All-Star games that determine home-field advantage in the World Series.
9. Free steroids for everyone!

Well, maybe not that last one. Anyway, happy holidays!

Post from: Knuckle Curve

This is going to take a while, so you may want to pull up a chair. Heck, go ahead and order a pizza.

Headed to Detroit

Cabrera is a stud. There’s no other way to put it. In any given year, he’s a legitimate MVP candidate. Better players in baseball? You can count the number on one hand, possibly two. Yeah, Cabrera’s a little heavy but he’s also a hitting machine who turns 25 in April. He’s a guy around which a team can build. Even that’s an understatement.

The Tigers now feature a sick, sick offense. Cabrera, Magglio Ordonez, Curtis Granderson, Gary Sheffield, Carlos Guillen? Sure, Ordonez will come back to earth somewhat, but who cares. This team will score 900 runs in 2008.

On the pitching front, Willis is coming off a poor season (5.17 ERA). He turns 26 in January, so this may have been a fluke. Then again, he’s been ridden pretty hard at a young age, like a certain Steve Avery I know, so maybe not.

Anyway, with a rotation headed by Justin Verlander and Jeremy Bonderman, and with that offense, it’s not like the Tigers need an ace. They just need a guy who can soak up innings, and Willis fits the bill. He could win 15 games without even getting out of bed next year.

Headed to Florida

Maybin and Miller are the prizes in this deal. Maybin is a stud in the making. Only by the grace of Granderson was he deemed expendable. As a 20-year-old in the pitching-friendly Florida State League, Maybin hit .304/.393/.486 before making late cameos in Double-A and the big leagues. Baseball America rated Maybin as the Tigers top prospect coming into 2007, comparing him to Mike Cameron and Torii Hunter.

Miller is a flamethrowing (love that phrase; how wicked would it be if a guy could actually do it?) left-hander who saw action at four levels (including 13 starts with the big club) in 2007. His command is spotty, but that should improve with experience. There is also some concern that his delivery could lead to injury down the line, but that’s always a risk with pitchers. If Miller stays healthy and develops as expected, he should be a front-line starter.

Rabelo is a 27-year-old catcher with a career .263/.327/.346 minor-league line. BA cited his defensive skills in ranking Rabelo as the Tigers’ 18th best prospect before last season.

De La Cruz is a right-hander who turns 24 in March. He made 11 starts in Double-A last season with decent results and then moved to the bullpen at Triple-A, where he was less successful. BA ranked De La Cruz #6 among Tigers prospects prior to the ‘07 season.

Trahern is a 22-year-old right-hander who spent most of 2007 at Double-A Erie. His career 3.38 ERA looks nice, but the 4.86 K/9 makes it unlikely he’ll have much of a career. Apparently he serves up a lot of groundballs. BA ranked Trahern at #8 last year, although he looks more like the second coming of Nate Cornejo to me.

Badenhop is, would you believe, another right-hander. BA had him at #22 in the Detroit system headed into 2007. He posted decent numbers (3.13 ERA) in the FSL but was old (24) for the league and struck out just 5.19 batters per 9 innings. I don’t see a lot of upside here.

Bottom Line

The Marlins get two tremendous prospects, plus a bunch of marginal guys. The Tigers get one of the best players in all of baseball, plus a solid option for the back end of their rotation. Theoretically this could help both clubs a la the Josh Beckett for Hanley Ramirez deal, but all of the risk is on Florida’s side.

The Tigers have upgraded an already potent offense and added starting pitching depth without losing anything that they’re likely to miss. This is a tremendous deal for them, and one that makes the Tigers, if not favorites to win the AL pennant in 2008, a truly elite team in baseball.

Other Voices

• Detroit Tiger Weblog
• Mack Avenue Tigers
• Tiger Tales
• Fish Stripes

Post from: Knuckle Curve

I have to admit, Olivo is one my favorite players because, by all rights, his skill set should not merit a starting job in the big leagues. And yet, there he is. Check out his walk rates:

Give Olivo credit. He didn’t develop his “ability” to swing at everything right away, but he stuck with it and now he’s absolutely hacktabulous. If only he’d gotten started sooner…

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Post from: Knuckle Curve

The story so far:

• AL West
• AL Central
• AL East
• NL West
• NL Central

And now for our latest installment…

• Mets – Only a historic collapse kept me from getting this one right. They were supposed to be the strongest team in the National League, and I had them losing to the Angels in the World Series.
• Braves – You wonder what might have been if they hadn’t traded away Adam LaRoche for Mike Gonzalez and if Andruw Jones had shown up to play.
• Phillies – At the beginning of the season, I didn’t think they had enough pitching. I still don’t, but it appears not to matter. Running Cole Hamels out there every fifth day and having a bunch of guys beat the snot out of the ball in a tiny park turns out to be a pretty effective strategy. Who knew.
• Marlins – Clearly Joe Girardi was holding this club back. Good thing the owner got rid of him. It must be difficult knowing that too much success could force you to keep your team where it is.
• Nationals – Speaking of teams formerly owned by a certain art collector, vive Les Expos! I bought into the hype that said this would be one of the worst teams in big-league history; too bad they couldn’t even finish last in their own division. And forget Dmitri Young; I’d like to know how the Nats got anything out of Cristian Guzman.

My worst division by far. I got precisely zero spots correct. I’m okay with missing on the Mets, because a lot of smart folks blew that one, but I’d underestimated Philadelphia, and I need to figure out why.

The Nationals? I’m still blown away by their performance this year. They finished with a better record than their neighbors, the Baltimore Orioles, who spent far more money on salary (albeit rather stupidly).

Post from: Knuckle Curve

Teams are running out of time to make their move. The AL West and Central have been decided — if not mathematically, then practically speaking. The AL East is still up for grabs, but unless you’re a fan of the Red Sox or Yankees, that’s not a particularly compelling story line seeing that the runner-up almost certainly will win the wild card.

In the National League, things are a little more interesting. The Mets continue their free fall and now are just 1 1/2 games ahead of Philadelphia in the East. The Mets head to Florida for a series with the Marlins (hopefully in front of more than 375 people), while the Phillies are in Washington to face the Nationals. Advantage? Well, someone has the opportunity to make up ground in the wild card race.

The same 1 1/2 game gap separates the Cubs from second-place Milwaukee in the Central. Chicago plays host to the Pirates, fresh off losing four straight in San Diego; the Brewers face the Braves in Atlanta. This could be a great chance for the Cubs to get some separation headed into the final week.

Out west, meanwhile, Arizona’s lead over the Padres has slipped to a half game, while the Rockies — a long shot — find themselves five out and playing excellent baseball. The Diamondbacks are at home against the stumbling Dodgers. Here in San Diego, two of the hottest teams in the National League square off in what could be the Rockies’ last grasp at a playoff shot — a tremendous run considering their extreme youth and relative inexperience.

The real question is how much pride the Dodgers will play with now that they’re essentially out of the race. If you’re a fan of the Padres or Rockies, you hope LA will come out fighting. The Dodgers have been so inconsistent that it’s impossible to say which team will show up over the weekend.

Whatever happens, we’ve got some potentially exciting matchups. Seriously, is this the best time of the season or what?

Post from: Knuckle Curve

Uh, whatever.

Quoth the “fan”:

I did something that anyone else would do.

Wow. Sometimes it really takes a special kind of stupid…

Post from: Knuckle Curve

With the 12th pick in the 2007 draft, the Florida Marlins have selected high school third baseman Matt Dominguez.

What they’re saying:

Nearly everyone agrees he’s a Gold Glover in the making. One scout said he was the best defensive third baseman he’d seen in years.

–Jonathan Mayo, MLB.com

Additional reading:

• 2007 Draft Report (MiLB.com) — includes scouting video
• Player Bio (Chatsworth HS)
• Area Code Profile (StudentSportsBaseball.com)
• Last day of innocence (Los Angeles Daily News)

Post from: Knuckle Curve