NL MVP – Lance Berkman, Houston Astros
Sure, the Astros are a bad team and chances are slim that they will make the playoffs. That said, Berkman is having a career year and is the best hitter in the NL to date this season.

AL Cy Young – Cliff Lee, Cleveland Indians
Mariano Rivera might be having his best season in his career but Lee has been amazing. His 12-2 record is very impressive, as is his 2.31 ERA. Lee was nothing special until this year but now the Cleveland ace is making a name for himself.

NL Cy Young – Edinson Volquez, Cincinnati Reds
Josh Hamilton is playing amazing baseball for the Texas Rangers, however the Reds have to be happy with their offseason move. The Reds got Volquez from the Rangers and he has consistently been the best pitcher in the NL this season.

AL Rookie of the Year – Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay Rays
One day soon, Evan Longoria might become more famous than Eva Longoria. He’s the clear cut rookie of the year in the AL — and it’s not even close. He has exceeded all the hype he had coming into the season.

NL Rookie of the Year – Geovany Soto, Chicago Cubs
A lot of players on the Cubs are getting notoriety this season but one can argue that Soto is the most valuable player on Chicago’s roster. He has stepped in as a rookie and is playing great baseball.

Is Geovany Soto the best player on the Cubs?

Photo: Newscom

Post from: Knuckle Curve

On second thought, let’s take a look at someone else taking a look at Gossage. In this case, we’ll check in on a couple of guys with a vote, ESPN’s Phil Rogers and Sean McAdam.

As fascinating to me as the discussions of why a player is or isn’t deserving of enshrinement in Cooperstown are the discussions of why voters think a player is or isn’t. The former question is, for the most part, pretty straightforward. You look at some numbers, compare them against those of other great players, and go about your merry way. As for what the voters are thinking, well, that’s where things get… interesting.

Here are a few tidbits from the linked article. PR is Rogers, SM is McAdam. Note that these are only excerpts; read the whole thing to get context.

PR: I think a lot of us have just been slow to recognize relief pitchers. I’m hoping Bruce Sutter’s election two years ago serves as a springboard to get Gossage in this time around.

Yeah, I can buy the “slow to recognize” argument. I don’t see how it would take Sutter to “serve as a springboard” when Gossage was a better pitcher, but I see the logic more or less.

PR: I was probably one of the few voters who put three relievers on their ballots in previous years when I checked Sutter, Gossage and Lee Smith. I’m down to one this year, as Smith has been passed by Trevor Hoffman for the all-time save lead and my vote for Lee Arthur was based on his being the leader. Sorry, Lee.

I’m having trouble here. Smith was Hall of Fame material before his record was broken, but now that someone has surpassed him, he isn’t. How does that work? If the record is meaningful, which Rogers implies it is through his acknowledgment of Hoffman’s achievement, then how does the fact that Hoffman broke it diminish Smith’s accomplishment? I seriously don’t get that at all. Hoffman’s status as the new all-time saves leader should have no bearing on Smith’s place in history.

Anyway, we’re talking about Gossage:

SM: I remembered Gossage’s hanging on at the end of his distinguished 22-year career and having ordinary — at best — seasons with the Giants, Yankees (Part II), Rangers, A’s and Mariners. In those last five seasons combined, he had a grand total of eight saves. Not exactly the stuff of legends, right?

Uh, Steve Carlton sends his regards.

SM: By then, of course, relievers were routinely posting 40-save seasons — Gossage never had more than 33 in a single year — and his numbers began to look pretty ordinary by comparison. He never won a Cy Young Award or an MVP — like Dennis Eckersley, Willie Hernandez and Rollie Fingers each did.

The only way in which Gossage’s “numbers began to look pretty ordinary” is if you were looking at the wrong numbers. Here’s what the relievers McAdam mentions did when they won their awards, with one of Gossage’s seasons thrown in for good measure:

Okay, so based on the above numbers, please tell me who won the MVP and Cy Young, and who failed to garner a vote for either award. (Note that ‘81 was a strike-shortened season.) Ironically, over in the American League, future Gossage teammate Sparky Lyle did win the Cy Young in ‘77 with slightly inferior numbers.

I’m not necessarily arguing that Gossage should have won an award in ‘77 — Carlton was fantastic that year — but the fact that he wasn’t even named on a ballot gives me considerably less confidence in McAdam’s appeal to authority here. He’s essentially saying that because the writers didn’t vote for him back in the day, they shouldn’t vote for him now. More accurately, McAdam (who has come around on Gossage) is providing his reasons for resisting in the past. Good on him for getting it right, but it troubles me that this type of thinking was employed in the first place.

McAdam offers a nice parting shot:

SM: I suppose, Phil, one of the reasons that people’s vote totals change is because of instances exactly like this one: A voter re-examines someone and reserves the right to change his/her mind. The stats don’t change, but sometimes, your perspective does. I’m not afraid to admit I erred in not voting for Gossage earlier, and I have made amends.

I can’t commend McAdam enough for coming clean on all of this. He sets a great example for other voters by admitting that, upon further review, he is reversing his original assessment of Gossage’s candidacy. The next step would be to provide voters with tools (and understanding of how to use them) so that they avoid making these mistakes in the first place.

But that’s a battle for another day…

Post from: Knuckle Curve

Your 2007 AL MVP is Alex Rodriguez, which makes sense because with all due respect to Detroit’s Magglio Ordonez, A-Rod dominated the league in every conceivable way. His was an easy choice.

In the National League, things were complicated by the Mets’ historic collapse. If David Wright’s team had reached the playoffs, I’m convinced the voters would have chosen the right guy.

As it stands, they were sure to make a mistake, the only issue being whether it would favor Colorado’s Matt Holliday or Philadelphia’s Jimmy Rollins. As you probably know by now, Rollins was named NL MVP.

It’s not Rollins’ fault that the voters botched this, so I don’t begrudge him the award in the slightest. Congratulations to Rollins and Rodriguez.

Post from: Knuckle Curve

Larry on baseball writers:

I commend you for your restraint, Geoff. Baseball writers have been so wretched they shouldn’t have a say in ANY post-season awards OR the HOF.

Go to the HOF site and see what the writers have done since 1936. The first ballot was tough, with Cobb, Ruth, Honus Wagner, Hornsby and Walter Johnson on the ballot.

400-game winner Johnson got in, but 500-game winner Cy Young didn’t. He got in the next year, in 1937 – with 76%. Imagine, 24% of writers didn’t think Cy Young belonged in the Hall.

Honus Wagner and his 8 batting titles and .327 lifetime average got in, but Hornsby’s 7 NL titles and .358 average got less than half the vote. I guess they forgot about his three .400 seasons or his two triple crowns.

Hornsby not only didn’t get in, he was dropped from the ballot in ‘37. He got back on in ‘38 and got 19% of the vote. He was finally voted into the Hall in 1942, with 78% of the vote.

The writers have been stiffs since day one. You were much too kind, Geoff.

Rain Delay on Seattle’s managerial situation:

The Mariners are under .500 with John Mclaren at the helm. You’d think all of the time as he spent as Lou’s bench coach he would’ve learned, something… heck anything…

I pray that he’s not hired on for 2008.

Sorry, bud; next time pray harder.

Vegas Watch on the Arizona Diamondbacks:

In looking back at various preseason predictions, I think it’s interesting that everybody was so wrong about the Diamondbacks, but ended up being right (if that makes sense).

As you said, the young hitters didn’t come through, as they’re third to last in the NL in R/G. The pitching ended up carrying them – third in the NL in ERA.

That adds up to about an average team, but of course they completely outperformed their Pythag record. I doubt there has ever been a team that has ended up being this different from people’s expectations, yet finishes (potentially) right where everybody expected.

Joe Ruiz on classic rock:

If I hear Foghat during the next commercial, I’m switching to Gameday Audio.

Derrick on Jimmy Rollins for MVP:

J-Roll has put up historical numbers from the lead off spot. He also should win the Gold Glove. Holliday is not a leader the way that Jimmy Rollins is. Nor is he the defensive player that Rollins is. The MVP is the single player that helps their own team to win and to hold that team together. J-Roll backs up what he says. Have you guys heard of Super Bowl III? Great players back it up on the field. No player in baseball has held a team together like Jimmy has this year.

BV on the AL Cy Young race:

Other than the fact that Josh Beckett has one more win than CC How can anyone build a legit case that Beckett deserves the CY… CC should win in a landslide…

And there you have it…

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Post from: Knuckle Curve

The AL race is (or should be) a slam dunk. I’m fascinated that some folks have voted against A-Rod in our poll. I’d love to hear reasons behind that (”Yankees are teh suck” isn’t a reason).

I also find it surprising that Chase Utley still ranks so highly in the NL race. There’s no way he’ll win it, and if the Mets somehow slip out of a playoff spot, I’m not sure about David Wright either. I agree with VW’s assessment of Matt Holliday (who is getting some love in our NL poll):

He’s been good (and those 131 RBIs are going to be real tough for the voters to pass up if the Rockies somehow sneak into the playoffs), but he really doesn’t belong in the MVP discussion.

Holliday has had a monstrous (.357/.434/.833) September, and I suspect that if Colorado plays even one postseason game, he’s the winner. I remain in the Wright camp, despite his team’s late collapse.

[Update, Sep 29, 2007: An AP article doesn’t even mention Wright as a possibility.

Post from: Knuckle Curve

We’ve spent a lot of time talking about the National League MVP race, while perhaps neglecting the AL side. It feels, at times, like a one-man race, but is it?

ESPN’s Jayson Stark assembled a list of key contenders a few weeks ago, and most of ‘em make sense (not sure about David Ortiz this year, and he’s a little too excited about J.J. Putz for my taste), although my personal opinion is that the real battle here is for second place. Then again, the writers are full of surprises, so I guess we’ll have to wait and see.

Who do you like, and why?

Post from: Knuckle Curve

Jacob’s analysis is solid, but I disagree with the conclusion, mainly because it gives voters too much credit. Specifically, I don’t know that Prince Fielder will be penalized much for his defense if he keeps leading the league in homers, nor do I have confidence in voters’ ability to understand (or care) just how much Matt Holliday has been helped by Coors Field.

I think the race will come down to Fielder, Holliday, and last year’s winner, Ryan Howard. How would I vote? Not sure, but probably Hanley Ramirez (despite his defensive shortcomings) or David Wright.

Post from: Knuckle Curve

Heck, some of us do it even sooner than that.

Jacob at Vegas Watch has devised a quick-and-dirty system for identifying the top position players in each league using adjusted WPA and UZR. I’m still digesting this, but it’s a fascinating technique with pretty reasonable-looking results: AL | NL.

I’m particularly interested to see so many of the young hitters I talked about at The Hardball Times before the season show up on the NL list. (Speaking of which, I really need to revisit that list.) As someone who is fortunate enough to see Adrian Gonzalez on a daily basis, I’m also pleased to see him fare so well according to Jacob’s system. First basemen rarely get much love for their glove, but Gonzalez is a wizard over there.

On another note, it might be instructive to apply some of these techniques to past seasons and see what, if any, predictive value they might have in finding actual MVPs. Then again, “boatloads of RBI on a winning team” seems to be working fairly well in that capacity.

Post from: Knuckle Curve