Headed to Houston

Tejada is coming off a .296/.357/.442 campaign, which is low by his standards but still pretty darned good. The downside is that he turns 32 in May and, thanks to that whole consecutive-games streak thing, has a lot of wear-and-tear on his 5′10″, 170-lb frame. Also, the Astros have an otherworldly defender at short in Adam Everett, so if Tejada moves to third base, how will that affect his value? For a guy that’s due $26 million over the next two seasons, those are a lot of questions. Then again, no-one is out of contention in the NL Central, so why not take a shot…

Headed to Baltimore

Scott is a solid fourth-outfield type who might be capable of a full-time gig. He’s a left-handed batter with a nice mix of power and plate discipline — think Brad Wilkerson.

Albers, a right-hander, had a horrendous (4-11, 5.86 ERA) rookie campaign with the Astros. He was hittable, had a poor strikeout-to-walk ratio, and gave up too many homers. Coming into 2007, Baseball America had rated Albers as Houston’s #3 prospect, so maybe he just needs to make some adjustments at the big-league level.

Patton, a left-hander, was the Astros’ #2 prospect according to BA, which projected him as a potential front-end guy. Patton posted decent numbers at Double- and Triple-A in 2007, although the strikeout rate (5.53) could have been higher.

Sarfate, a right-hander, has spent his entire career in the Milwaukee organization. Prior to ‘07, BA had him ranked as the Brewers’ #22 prospect. Previously a starter, Sarfate moved to the ‘pen last year, with mixed results at Triple-A Nashville. He struck out a lot of batters, but also walked a lot. The Astros acquired Sarfate from Milwaukee in a September deal for the ever-popular “cash considerations.”

Costanzo is a left-handed hitting third baseman with loads of power and questionable ability to make contact. Not quite as whifftastic as Russell Branyan; more like Dallas McPherson.

There aren’t really any impact players in this bunch. Scott is a decent player, chances are that one of Patton or Albers will pan out, Costanzo is intriguing, and Sarfate is roster fill (on the bright side, he is cheaper than Danys Baez).

I know Tejada is expensive and entering the decline phase of his career, but I’m not sure the Orioles got enough in terms of quality. It’s like the kid who trades his dollar bill for two quarters because two is more than one, two quarters for three dimes… Eventually he has five cents in his pocket.

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Post from: Knuckle Curve

The story so far:

• AL West
• AL Central
• AL East
• NL West
• NL Central

And now for our latest installment…

• Mets – Only a historic collapse kept me from getting this one right. They were supposed to be the strongest team in the National League, and I had them losing to the Angels in the World Series.
• Braves – You wonder what might have been if they hadn’t traded away Adam LaRoche for Mike Gonzalez and if Andruw Jones had shown up to play.
• Phillies – At the beginning of the season, I didn’t think they had enough pitching. I still don’t, but it appears not to matter. Running Cole Hamels out there every fifth day and having a bunch of guys beat the snot out of the ball in a tiny park turns out to be a pretty effective strategy. Who knew.
• Marlins – Clearly Joe Girardi was holding this club back. Good thing the owner got rid of him. It must be difficult knowing that too much success could force you to keep your team where it is.
• Nationals – Speaking of teams formerly owned by a certain art collector, vive Les Expos! I bought into the hype that said this would be one of the worst teams in big-league history; too bad they couldn’t even finish last in their own division. And forget Dmitri Young; I’d like to know how the Nats got anything out of Cristian Guzman.

My worst division by far. I got precisely zero spots correct. I’m okay with missing on the Mets, because a lot of smart folks blew that one, but I’d underestimated Philadelphia, and I need to figure out why.

The Nationals? I’m still blown away by their performance this year. They finished with a better record than their neighbors, the Baltimore Orioles, who spent far more money on salary (albeit rather stupidly).

Post from: Knuckle Curve

The story so far:

• AL West
• AL Central
• AL East

First off, I’d like to thank all the spammers for their excellent suggestions. Some pretty imaginative stuff, although much of it I fear is not physically possible. But really, what are we without ambition?

To the topic at hand. Here are my preseason predictions for the NL West, annotated for your amusement:

1. Diamondbacks – I expected them to be on top, but I figured it would be on the strength of their talented young hitters. Instead, pitching has carried the day in Phoenix. What a bullpen…
2. Padres – Not a bad showing from a team whose skipper had never managed at any level before this season.
3. Dodgers – I overestimated them, although not as badly as some folks did. Injuries to Nomar Garciaparra, Jason Schmidt, and Randy Wolf really hamstrung this club. How could anyone have foreseen those guys getting hurt? Still, there isn’t much holding back the Dodgers — mainly just the front office.
4. Rockies – Wow, what a season. If they’re in the NL Central, they run away with the division. If I had a say, I’d be very tempted to cast my NL Manager of the Year vote for Clint Hurdle. This is a club that had averaged 71.8 wins a year over the previous six seasons, with a high-water mark of 76 in 2006.
5. Giants – At least they found a taker for Matt Morris.

I almost nailed this division. The Dodgers gave up at the end and Colorado went on a tear. Neither of those events could have been anticipated.

Post from: Knuckle Curve

American League

• Mariners at Twins, 5:10 p.m. PT — How in the world can Horacio Ramirez have a 7-4 record despite a 7.38 ERA? If his performance doesn’t convince you that won-loss record is a terrible way to evaluate starting pitchers, then nothing will. Opponents are batting .341/.407/.518 against the southpaw; that’s roughly what Joe Mauer did last year. Right-hander Matt Garza (2-3, 2.05 ERA) starts for Minnesota.
• Yankees at Angels, 7:05 p.m. PT — New York has won 21 of its last 30 and is now just four games back of Boston in the AL East. The Angels are up by two games in the AL West. Two young pitchers, Philip Hughes and Dustin Moseley, face each other in this one. Both have been brilliant at times but, as you might expect, very inconsistent. Both lineups are stacked, too, and the pitchers will have their hands full.

National League

• Brewers at Diamondbacks, 6:40 p.m. PT — After leading the NL Central for much of the season, Milwaukee has slipped behind the Cubs into second place. Rookie Yovani Gallardo gets the call for the Brewers. He’s allowed 18 runs over 8 1/3 innings covering his previous two starts. Milwaukee features MVP candidate Prince Fielder and ROY favorite Ryan Braun on offense. Veteran lefty Doug Davis gets the start for Arizona against his old team. Davis is 10-10 this year, after going 11-11 each of the past two seasons, and 12-12 the year before that. Weird.

One game: Yankees at Anaheim. It’s the most compelling pitching matchup and has the most playoff implications. Happy watching…

Post from: Knuckle Curve

• Tigers at Yankees, 12:55 p.m. PT — Two teams fighting for a playoff berth, Roger Clemens pitching… Clemens’ career ERA by team: Tor, 2.33; Hou, 2.40; Bos, 3.06; NYA, 3.99.
• Angels at Red Sox, 4:05 p.m. PT — Same as above, but with Curt Schilling instead of Clemens.
• Cardinals at Cubs, 12:55 p.m. PT — Take the NL Central, please. Nobody wants it, and here come the Cards. Gee, I sure hope another 83-win team wins the World Series this year.
• Diamondbacks at Braves, 4:05 p.m. PT — Bobby Cox has his team in the wild card chase. Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine have been replaced by Buddy Carlyle and Chuck James. But, oh, that is a fun lineup.

There you go…

Post from: Knuckle Curve

American League

• Tigers at Indians, 4:05 p.m. PT — A showdown between two teams tied for first in the AL Central come mid-August? Two outstanding young pitchers (Jeremy Bonderman, C.C. Sabathia)? Dude, you are so all over this one. Here’s the thing I don’t understand about Bonderman: How can he possibly have a 4.75 ERA? Ah, here it is: Since the All-Star break, opponents are batting .344/.379/.603 against him. The kid’s got great stuff, though; someone should be able to fix that.

National League

• Reds at Cubs, 5:05 p.m. PT — The Reds are done, but Tuesday night’s starter, Aaron Harang, deserves some kind of medal for posting an 11-3 record on a team with a .427 winning percentage. Carlos Zambrano goes for the Cubs, who continue to pursue the Brewers for NL Central supremacy. Did I say “supremacy”? That’s probably too strong a word, but you get the idea.
• Rockies at Padres, 7:05 p.m. PT — Another fun pennant battle showdown, this time in the NL West. Jeff Francis and Greg Maddux face off in this one. If you enjoy watching pitchers who rely on hitting their spots, you could do a lot worse than watch these two guys. For those interested, I’ve got a more detailed preview of the entire series over at Ducksnorts.

One game? I’ll go with Colorado and San Diego, but I’m biased. If Bonderman is on his game, the Tigers and Indians could be a lot of fun to watch. Enjoy!

Post from: Knuckle Curve

Post from: Knuckle Curve